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2018 Fremantle by-election

2018 Fremantle by-election
← 2016 28 July 2018 (2018-07-28) 2019 →
The Division of Fremantle (WA) in the House of Representatives
Registered103,149
Turnout66.09% Decrease 22.72
  First party Second party Third party
 
LDP
Candidate Josh Wilson John Gray Dorinda Cox
Party Labor Liberal Democrats Greens
Popular vote 33,277 8,916 10,456
Percentage 52.62% 14.10% 16.53%
Swing Increase 11.63 Increase 14.10 Decrease 1.21
2CP 73.33% 26.67%
2CP change Increase 15.81 Increase 26.67
MP before election

Josh Wilson
Labor

Elected MP

Josh Wilson
Labor

A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Fremantle took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Josh Wilson.[1]

In early counting, within 90 minutes of the close of polls, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's psephologist Antony Green's electoral computer had predicted Labor to retain the electorate with an increased margin.[2] This election is notable for being the first time that a Liberal Democrats candidate was included in the two-candidate-preferred counting in an Australian federal election.

The by-election occurred on the same day as four other by-elections for the House of Representatives, colloquially known as Super Saturday.

Background

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Due to the High Court ruling against Senator Katy Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoing parliamentary eligibility crisis, Wilson and three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day,[1] while the Perth incumbent resigned for family reasons.[3] The Speaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is unprecedented in Australian political history.[4] The others are:

Key dates

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Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[5]

Candidates

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Candidates (7) in ballot paper order[6]
Party Candidate Background
  Christians Mark Staer Contested Cannington at the 2008 state election and Gosnells at the 2013 state election.[7]
  Greens Dorinda Cox Small business owner, former police officer, anti-domestic violence campaigner.[8]
  Animal Justice Katrina Love Party's national vice president and state convenor.[6]
  Labor Josh Wilson Previous MP for Fremantle elected at the 2016 federal election.[9]
  Liberal Democrats John Gray Former Navy officer, Notre Dame University law student, Starlight Children's Foundation entertainer.[10]
  People James Harfouche Curtin University commerce student.[6]
  Independent Jason Spanbroek Running on an anti-Labor platform.[11]

The Liberals declined to contest the Fremantle and Perth federal by-elections, but concentrated their resources on the Darling Range state by-election.[12]

Polling

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Fremantle by-election polling
Date Firm Commissioned by Sample Primary vote TCP vote
ALP GRN LDP OTH UND ALP GRN
23 July 2018 ReachTEL Legalise Vaping Australia[13] 692 49.3% 16.0% 17.4% 11.2% 6.1% 69% 31%
2016 election 41.0% 17.7% − 41.3% − 57.5% −

Results

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Fremantle by-election: 28 July 2018[14][15]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labor Josh Wilson 33,277 52.62 +11.63
Greens Dorinda Cox 10,456 16.53 −1.21
Liberal Democrats John Gray 8,916 14.10 +14.10
Christians Mark Staer 3,350 5.30 +5.30
Animal Justice Katrina Love 3,297 5.21 +5.21
Independent Jason Spanbroek 3,239 5.12 +5.12
People's Party James Harfouche 708 1.12 +1.12
Total formal votes 63,243 92.76 −3.24
Informal votes 4,933 7.24 +3.24
Turnout 68,176 66.09 −22.72
Two-candidate-preferred result
Labor Josh Wilson 46,375 73.33 +15.81
Liberal Democrats John Gray 16,868 26.67 +26.67
Labor hold Swing N/A

See also

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References

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  1. ^ a b Citizenship drama flares again, with four MPs and one senator on the way out after High Court ruling: ABC 9 May 2018
  2. ^ July 2018 Federal By-elections: Antony Green ABC
  3. ^ Federal Member for Perth Tim Hammond quits politics for family, triggering WA by-election: ABC 2 May 2018
  4. ^ "Date set for by-elections in Perth, Fremantle, Mayo, Longman and Braddon". ABC News. 24 May 2018. Retrieved 24 May 2018.
  5. ^ "2018 Fremantle by-election". Australian Electoral Commission.
  6. ^ a b c 2018 Fremantle by-election guide: Antony Green ABC
  7. ^ 2018 Fremantle by-election: australianchristians.org.au
  8. ^ Dorinda Cox for Fremantle: greens.org.au
  9. ^ Labor's quadruple edge in the citizenship by-elections: Candidates, time, history and money - ABC 10 May 2018
  10. ^ John Gray - Liberal Democrats candidate for Fremantle: Facebook
  11. ^ Jason Spanbroek for Fremantle: Facebook
  12. ^ Mathias Cormann admits Liberals have given up on Perth, Fremantle by-elections: ABC 14 May 2018
  13. ^ Super Saturday minus one day: Poll Bludger 27 July 2018
  14. ^ "Fremantle by-election results: AEC".
  15. ^ "Fremantle by-election results: ABC".
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