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2022 Castilian-Leonese regional election

2022 Castilian-Leonese regional election
← 2019 13 February 2022 Next →
All 81 seats in the Cortes of Castile and León
41 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered2,094,623 Red arrow down1.0%
Turnout1,230,599 (58.8%)
Red arrow down7.0 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Alfonso Fernández Mañueco Luis Tudanca Juan García-Gallardo
Party PP PSOE Vox
Leader since 1 April 2017 18 October 2014 7 January 2022
Leader's seat Salamanca Burgos Valladolid
Last election 29 seats, 31.5% 35 seats, 34.8% 1 seat, 5.5%
Seats won 31 28 13
Seat change Green arrow up2 Red arrow down7 Green arrow up12
Popular vote 382,157 365,434 214,668
Percentage 31.4% 30.0% 17.6%
Swing Red arrow down0.1 pp Red arrow down4.9 pp Green arrow up12.1 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Luis Mariano Santos Ángel Ceña Pablo Fernández
Party UPL EV–SY Podemos–IU–AV
Leader since 26 March 2015 10 January 2022 14 February 2015
Leader's seat León Soria Valladolid
Last election 1 seat, 2.0% Did not contest 2 seats, 7.3%[a]
Seats won 3 3 1
Seat change Green arrow up2 Green arrow up3 Red arrow down1
Popular vote 52,098 39,040 62,138
Percentage 4.3% 3.2% 5.1%
Swing Green arrow up2.3 pp New party Red arrow down2.2 pp
  Seventh party Eighth party
 
Leader Francisco Igea Pedro Pascual
Party Cs XAV
Leader since 11 March 2019 9 April 2019
Leader's seat Valladolid Ávila
Last election 12 seats, 14.9% 1 seat, 0.7%
Seats won 1 1
Seat change Red arrow down11 Blue arrow right0
Popular vote 54,721 13,875
Percentage 4.5% 1.1%
Swing Red arrow down10.4 pp Green arrow up0.4 pp
Constituency results map for the Cortes of Castile and León
President before election

Alfonso Fernández Mañueco
PP

Elected President

Alfonso Fernández Mañueco
PP

The 2022 Castilian-Leonese regional election was held on Sunday, 13 February 2022, to elect the 11th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castile and León. All 81 seats in the Cortes were up for election. This marks the first time that a regional premier in Castile and León has made use of the presidential prerogative to call an early election.

The previous election had seen a victory for the opposition Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) for the first time since 1983, but the ruling People's Party (PP) was able to elect its candidate, Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, as new regional president by forming a coalition with the liberal Citizens (Cs). Despite this arrangement, tensions soon began to emerge between the two governing partners over the management of the COVID-19 pandemic in the region. In March 2021, a PSOE-tabled vote of no confidence was defeated, but it indirectly led to the defection of one Cs legislator to the opposition, leaving the PP–Cs government in minority status.[1] Subsequently, rumours rose on the possibility of Mañueco planning a snap election to be held at some point between the winter of 2021 and the spring of 2022, after having grown tired of the coalition as well as to take advantage of the PP's "honeymoon" in opinion polls following the Madrilenian election in May.[2][3][4] On 20 December 2021, Mañueco expelled Cs from his government and called the election for 13 February 2022,[5] catching his coalition partner off-guard, with his (now former) deputy Francisco Igea learning of it during a live interview.[6]

Results on election night were dubbed by most media as a pyrrhic victory for the PP, which failed to materialize early expectations of a landslide win in a historical stronghold, and instead ended up obtaining its worst result ever in both votes and vote share in the region, as well as a very close result with the PSOE, which was able to secure a stronger-than-expected performance, despite losing ground compared to 2019. The vote share for Cs collapsed and the party was barely able to retain Igea's seat in Valladolid but was successful in its primary goal of preventing a total wipeout. The far-right Vox party secured its best result in an autonomous community election in Spain up until that point, with 17.6% of the vote share and 13 seats. Unidas Podemos underperformed opinion polls, whereas regionalist Leonese People's Union (UPL) and For Ávila (XAV) secured their best results to date. Soria Now (SY)—a social platform aligned to the Empty Spain movement—won in the Soria constituency in a landslide. Together, both PP and Vox commanded a majority of 44 out of 81 seats, and formed a coalition government.

Overview

[edit]

Electoral system

[edit]

The Cortes of Castile and León were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castile and León, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Leonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[7] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castile and León and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Castilian-Leonese people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[8]

All members of the Cortes of Castile and León were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Ávila, Burgos, León, Palencia, Salamanca, Segovia, Soria, Valladolid and Zamora, with each being allocated an initial minimum of three seats, as well as one additional member per each 45,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 22,500.[7][9]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats:[10]

Seats Constituencies
15 Valladolid
13 León
11 Burgos
10 Salamanca
7 Ávila, Palencia, Zamora
6 Segovia
5 Soria

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.[11]

Election date

[edit]

The term of the Cortes of Castile and León expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Castile and León (BOCYL), with election day taking place between the fifty-fourth and sixtieth days from publication. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 26 May 2023. The election decree shall be published in the BOCYL no later than 2 May 2023, with the election taking place up to the sixtieth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes on Saturday, 1 July 2023.[7][9][12]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castile and León and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[7]

By 2021, the relationship between the two ruling coalition partners, the People's Party (PP) and Citizens (Cs) had become strained to the point that President Alfonso Fernández Mañueco was considering to call a snap election for late in the year or early 2022, taking advantage of the momentum gained by the PP in opinion polls as a result of its victory in the 2021 Madrilenian regional election. Mañueco was also wary that the Cs internal crisis, which had seen a number of defections from the party, could see a successful motion of no confidence being mounted on him once the PSOE was able to table a new censure motion in March 2022, one year after a previous, unsuccessful one.[2] In October 2021, it was hinted that Mañueco was considering an election to be held on either 28 November or 12 December,[13] though it later transpired that an election in the spring of 2022 was more likely.[14] Speculation on an early election in Andalusia,[4] coupled with possible snap elections in other regions—such as Aragon or the Valencian Community[15]—initially hinted at a possible simultaneous electoral call,[16] but Andalusian president Juan Manuel Moreno's announcement on 30 November that an election in Andalusia would not be held sooner than June 2022 meant that any prospective Castilian-Leonese snap election would be held earlier.[17] This was finally confirmed on 20 December 2021 when Mañueco announced a snap election for 13 February 2022.[5]

The Cortes of Castile and León was officially dissolved on 21 December 2021 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the BOCYL, setting the election date for 13 February 2022 and scheduling for the chamber to convene on 10 March.[10]

Parliamentary composition

[edit]

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the time of dissolution.

Parliamentary composition in December 2021[18]
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 35 35
People's Parliamentary Group PP 29 29
Citizens's Parliamentary Group Cs 11 11
Mixed Group Podemos 2 5
Vox 1
UPL 1
XAV 1
Non-Inscrits INDEP 1[b] 1

Parties and candidates

[edit]

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[9][12]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PSOE
List
 Luis Tudanca Social democracy 34.84% 35 ☒N [19]
PP
List
 Alfonso Fernández Mañueco Conservatism
Christian democracy 		31.50% 29 checkY [20]
Cs
List
 Francisco Igea Liberalism 14.94% 12 ☒N [21]
Podemos–
IU–AV
List
 Pablo Fernández Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism 		7.29%[a] 2 ☒N [22]
[23]
Vox
List
 Juan García-Gallardo Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism 		5.50% 1 ☒N [24]
UPL
List
 Luis Mariano Santos Regionalism
Autonomism 		2.04% 1 ☒N [25]
XAV
List
 Pedro Pascual Regionalism 0.69% 1 ☒N [26]
EV–SY
List
  • Soria Now! (SY)
  • Burgos Roots (Burgos Enraíza)
  • Clean Plateau (Meseta Limpia)
  • Aprodespa (Aprodespa)
Ángel Ceña Localism
Ruralism 		New party ☒N [27]
[28]
[29]
[30]

In September 2021, citizen collectives of the so-called "Empty Spain" (Spanish: España Vacía or España Vaciada), a coined term to refer to Spain's rural and largely unpopulated interior provinces,[31] agreed to look for formulas to contest the next elections in Spain, inspired by the success of the Teruel Existe candidacy (Spanish for "Teruel Exists") in the November 2019 general election.[32] By November 2021, it was confirmed that over 160 collectives and associations from about 30 Spanish provinces had committed themselves to finalizing the electoral platform before January 2022,[33] and that it would be ready to contest any snap election in Castile and León.[34][35] This was confirmed following Mañueco's announcement of the election date for 13 February 2022,[28] with the Soria Now! (Spanish: Soria ¡Ya!),[36] Burgos Roots (Spanish: Burgos Enraíza) platforms confirming their participation.[37] On 27 December, Clean Plateau (Spanish: Meseta Limpia) and Aprodespa announced a candidacy of the Empty Spain in the province of Palencia,[38] with a candidacy for Salamanca being announced the next day,[39] and for Valladolid on 10 January.[40] However, the platform ruled out standing in Ávila, León, Segovia and Zamora.[41][42][43][44]

Timetable

[edit]

The key dates are listed below (all times are CET):[12][45]

Campaign

[edit]

Party slogans

[edit]
Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Ref.
PSOE « Cambio y esperanza » "Change and hope" [46]
PP « La fuerza que nos mueve » "The force that makes us move" [47]
Cs « El valor de la palabra » "The value of the word" [48]
Podemos–IU–AV « Que tu voz se escuche » "Let your voice be heard" [49]
Vox « Siembra » "Seedtime" [50]
UPL « ¡Lo vamos a conseguir! » "We are going to make it!" [51]
XAV « Lo primero, nuestra provincia » "First of all, our province" [52]
EV « ¡Es el momento! » "It is time!" [53]

Election debates

[edit]

The electoral law of Castile and León provides for the presidential candidates of the parties having a parliamentary group in the Cortes to participate in, at least, two electoral debates to be held during the electoral campaign.[9] Only the PSOE, PP and Cs had parliamentary groups going into the 2022 election, meaning that parties such as Podemos and Vox were excluded from participating.[54]

2022 Castilian-Leonese regional election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present[c]    S  Surrogate[d]  
 NI  Not invited   A  Absent invitee 
PSOE PP Cs Audience Ref.
31 January RTVE Xabier Fortes P
Tudanca 		P
Mañueco 		P
Igea 		193,000
(22.1%)[e] 		[55]
[56]
9 February RTVCyL Alejandra Abad
Antonio Renedo 		P
Tudanca 		P
Mañueco 		P
Igea 		68,000
(7.9%) 		[57]

Both debates were assigned to the regional broadcasting company (Radio Televisión de Castilla y León, RTVCyL) to be held on 31 January and 9 February.[58] However, the national public broadcaster, RTVE, demanded to hold at least one of them.[59] The regional electoral board conceded the first debate to RTVE.[60] On 29 January, Cs's candidate Francisco Igea had a positive test for COVID-19, and requested a postponement of the debate.[61] The electoral board decided that Igea would virtually attend the debate on 31 January while isolated.[62]

Opinion polls

[edit]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

[edit]
Local regression trend line of poll results from 26 May 2019 to 13 February 2022, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

[edit]

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 41 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castile and León.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Voting preferences

[edit]

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

[edit]

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

[edit]

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

[edit]

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Junta of Castile and León.

Voter turnout

[edit]

The table below shows registered vote turnout on election day without including voters from the Census of Absent-Residents (CERA).

Province Time
11:30 14:00 18:00 20:00
2022 2019 2022 +/– 2019 2022 +/– 2019 2022 +/–
Ávila 11.90% 40.68% 34.85% –5.83 59.50% 52.63% –6.87 77.04% 63.95% –13.09
Burgos 11.25% 35.65% 35.09% –0.56 52.01% 51.06% –0.95 69.03% 62.80% –6.23
León 10.01% 35.02% 32.00% –3.02 50.95% 48.54% –2.41 68.07% 60.16% –7.91
Palencia 11.24% 37.19% 34.76% –2.43 54.69% 52.41% –2.28 72.94% 64.95% –7.99
Salamanca 11.70% 37.17% 34.84% –2.33 53.17% 51.01% –2.16 69.79% 62.74% –7.05
Segovia 12.24% 39.86% 35.75% –4.11 58.13% 53.31% –4.82 74.59% 64.98% –9.61
Soria 12.21% 35.39% 36.16% +0.77 52.00% 51.97% –0.03 69.93% 65.80% –4.13
Valladolid 11.90% 37.16% 37.21% +0.05 54.04% 55.06% +1.02 71.21% 66.80% –4.41
Zamora 10.70% 37.67% 32.25% –5.42 55.53% 48.87% –6.66 72.17% 60.80% –11.37
Total 11.31% 36.89% 34.73% –2.16 53.70% 51.62% –2.08 70.81% 63.44% –7.37
Sources[63]

Results

[edit]

Overall

[edit]
← Summary of the 13 February 2022 Cortes of Castile and León election results →
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
People's Party (PP) 382,157 31.40 –0.10 31 +2
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 365,434 30.02 –4.82 28 –7
Vox (Vox) 214,668 17.64 +12.14 13 +12
United We Can Castile and León (Podemos–IU–AV)1 62,138 5.11 –2.18 1 –1
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) 54,721 4.50 –10.44 1 –11
Leonese People's Union (UPL) 52,098 4.28 +2.24 3 +2
Empty Spain–Soria Now! (EV–SY) 39,040 3.21 New 3 +3
Empty Spain (España Vaciada) 19,655 1.61 New 0 ±0
Soria Now! (SY) 19,385 1.59 New 3 +3
For Ávila (XAV) 13,875 1.14 +0.45 1 ±0
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 6,572 0.54 –0.09 0 ±0
Castilian Party–Commoners' Land–Zero Cuts (PCAS–TC–RC) 2,851 0.23 New 0 ±0
Coalition for El Bierzo–El Bierzo Exists (CBierzo–BEX) 2,521 0.21 –0.06 0 ±0
Zamora Decides (Zamora Decide)2 2,121 0.17 +0.03 0 ±0
Communist Party of the Workers of Spain (PCTE) 1,359 0.11 +0.04 0 ±0
For a Fairer World (PUM+J) 1,135 0.09 +0.08 0 ±0
Regionalist Party of the Leonese Country (PREPAL) 962 0.08 –0.02 0 ±0
For Zamora (Por Zamora) 814 0.07 New 0 ±0
Blank Seats (EB) 626 0.05 New 0 ±0
Centered (centrados) 511 0.04 –0.03 0 ±0
Regionalist Union of Castile and León (Unión Regionalista) 401 0.03 –0.04 0 ±0
Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE de las JONS) 318 0.03 –0.02 0 ±0
Volt Spain (Volt) 273 0.02 New 0 ±0
You Contribute (TAB) 149 0.01 New 0 ±0
State of Spain Unionist Party (PUEDE) 114 0.01 New 0 ±0
Wake Up (Despierta) 113 0.01 New 0 ±0
Progress Party of Castile and León Cities (PPCCAL) 23 0.00 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 12,170 1.00 –0.06
Total 1,217,164 81 ±0
Valid votes 1,217,164 98.91 –0.10
Invalid votes 13,435 1.09 +0.10
Votes cast / turnout 1,230,599 58.75 –7.05
Abstentions 864,024 41.25 +7.05
Registered voters 2,094,623
Sources[64]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
PP
 
 31.40%
PSOE
 
 30.02%
Vox
 
 17.64%
Podemos–IU–AV
 
 5.11%
Cs
 
 4.50%
UPL
 
 4.28%
EV–SY
 
 3.21%
XAV
 
 1.14%
Others
 
 1.71%
Blank ballots
 
 1.00%
Seats
PP
 
 38.27%
PSOE
 
 34.57%
Vox
 
 16.05%
UPL
 
 3.70%
EV–SY
 
 3.70%
Podemos–IU–AV
 
 1.23%
Cs
 
 1.23%
XAV
 
 1.23%

Distribution by constituency

[edit]
Constituency PP PSOE Vox UP Cs UPL EV–SY XAV
% S % S % S % S % S % S % S % S
Ávila 34.0 3 24.2 2 17.4 1 3.7 − 2.4 − 16.7 1
Burgos 30.9 4 32.6 5 16.6 2 6.2 − 5.0 − 5.6 −
León 25.0 4 28.5 4 15.4 2 5.0 − 2.2 − 21.3 3
Palencia 32.9 3 33.9 3 18.0 1 4.3 − 5.5 − 2.8 −
Salamanca 38.8 5 29.6 3 18.0 2 3.5 − 4.9 − 1.0 − 1.9 −
Segovia 34.7 3 31.4 2 19.5 1 6.0 − 4.9 −
Soria 23.9 1 18.1 1 11.5 − 2.2 − 0.8 − 42.7 3
Valladolid 30.9 5 31.3 5 20.0 3 6.9 1 6.9 1 1.6 − 0.1 −
Zamora 33.6 3 32.7 3 18.9 1 3.2 − 3.6 − 2.7 −
Total 31.4 31 30.0 28 17.6 13 5.1 1 4.5 1 4.3 3 3.2 3 1.1 1
Sources[64]

Aftermath

[edit]
Further information: Second government of Alfonso Fernández Mañueco

Although the PP emerged as the largest party in the election, their vote share and vote totals decreased from the 2019 election to their worst historical result in the region, despite early polls initially predicting a comfortable victory for the party, with close to a majority of seats in the regional parliament. Mañueco had been accused throughout the campaign of triggering the election in an attempt to emulate Isabel Díaz Ayuso's victory in the 2021 Madrilenian election.[65] On election night, Vox's national leader Santiago Abascal proclaimed his candidate, Juan García-Gallardo, as the region's next vice president, while hinting that his party would not be satisfied with less power than was given to Cs following the 2019 government negotiations,[66] and that Vox would not support Mañueco "for free".[67]

Mañueco insisted in a PP minority government and warned Vox about "not taking a single step back" regarding women and LGBT rights.[68] Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez suggested that PSOE would be willing to consider abstaining in favour of Mañueco's government to stop Vox having influence in the region, and he demanded that, for PSOE to support them, PP must explain why they did not want to rely on the far-right's support as well as terminating all PP–Vox agreements throughout Spain at all levels and forever.[69]

In March 2022, PP and Vox formed a coalition government, with Vox taking three of ten ministerial positions including vice president for Juan García-Gallardo.[70] Vox member Carlos Pollán was elected President of the Cortes of Castile and León, the position of speaker.[71] The formation of the new government was endorsed by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the sole candidate in the PP's upcoming leadership election, although he said he would not repeat it on the national level.[72][73] Donald Tusk, leader of the European People's Party of which the Spanish party is a member, condemned the pact as "a sad surprise... I hope that it's just an incident or accident, not a trend in Spanish politics".[74]

Investiture
Alfonso Fernández Mañueco (PP)
Ballot → 11 April 2022
Required majority → 41 out of 81
Yes
  • • PP (31)
  • • Vox (13)
44 / 81
No
37 / 81
Abstentions
0 / 81
Absentees
0 / 81
Sources

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Results for Podemos–Equo (5.00%, 2 seats) and IU–Anticapitalistas–PCAS/TC–ALTER (2.29%, 0 seats) in the 2019 election.
  2. ^ María Montero, former Cs legislator.[1]
  3. ^ Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  4. ^ Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
  5. ^ In Castile and León, the debate was broadcast on La 1 (125,000; 14.3%), 24 Horas (32,000; 3.7%), La 7 (25,000; 2.8%) and La 8 (11,000; 1.3%). Nationwide, the debate was broadcast on 24 Horas (129,000; 0.9%).
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm bn bo bp bq br bs bt bu bv bw bx by bz ca cb cc cd ce cf cg ch ci cj ck cl cm cn co cp cq cr cs ct cu cv cw cx cy cz da db dc dd de df dg dh di dj dk dl dm dn do dp dq dr ds dt du dv dw dx dy dz ea eb ec ed ee ef eg eh ei ej ek el em en Within Unidas Podemos.

References

[edit]
Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "El PP gana en Castilla y León pero necesitará pactar con Vox para gobernar". El Español (in Spanish). 13 February 2022.
  2. ^ "El PP lograría una victoria por la mínima y tendría el Gobierno al alcance con Vox". El Mundo (in Spanish). 13 February 2022.
  3. ^ "El PP gana pero tendrá que pactar con Vox, según el sondeo de GAD3 para ABC al cierre de los colegios electorales". ABC (in Spanish). 13 February 2022.
  4. ^ "EmojiPanel (11F – Final): ligero trasvase de CIUDAD Rodrigo hacia el cuchifrito. Suben los batallones, se aprieta la cosa". Electomanía (in Spanish). 11 February 2022.
  5. ^ "El PSOE hace una última llamada al voto útil y aspira a ser de nuevo primera fuerza en Castilla y León". El Periódico (in Spanish). 11 February 2022.
  6. ^ "Encuesta de La Razón: El PP ganará con 33-35 escaños sin mayoría absoluta". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 February 2022.
  7. ^ "Estimación de voto y proyección de escaños en Castilla y León". Metroscopia (in Spanish). 13 February 2022.
  8. ^ "EmojiPanel (11F 10:30): los espárragos de TUDela se acercan al cuchifrito de la ALBerca y ya les estarían 'rosando' en la comanda. Menos morcilla". Electomanía (in Spanish). 11 February 2022.
  9. ^ "Ayuso cerrará la campaña con Casado y Mañueco ante la "posibilidad real" de perder". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 10 February 2022.
  10. ^ "Pánico en el PP a 72 horas del 13-F: "Bajamos y Vox está muy disparado"". VozPópuli (in Spanish). 11 February 2022.
  11. ^ "EmojiPanel (10F): bajada del cuchifrito, ligera subida de la chanfaina, los batallones y los espárragos. Más cecina y chuletón". Electomanía (in Spanish). 10 February 2022.
  12. ^ "EmojiPanel (9F): suben los espárragos de TUDela, baja el cochifrito de la ALBerca. Más morcilla burgalesa". Electomanía (in Spanish). 9 February 2022.
  13. ^ "EmojiPanel (8F): baja la demanda del cochifrito de la ALBerca". Electomanía (in Spanish). 8 February 2022.
  14. ^ "Al PP le sale rana el adelanto electoral: las encuestas no dan mayoría absoluta a Mañueco". Público (in Spanish). 7 February 2022.
  15. ^ "El PP no detiene su caída, pero Mañueco tiene asegurada la mayoría absoluta gracias a la subida de Vox". OKDiario (in Spanish). 7 February 2022.
  16. ^ "PaneCyL (7F): las opciones de gobierno de Mañueco en Castilla y León pasarían por Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 7 February 2022.
  17. ^ "Encuesta TRIBUNA: El PP ganaría las elecciones en Castilla y León con 35 procuradores y sumaría más que toda la izquierda junta". Tribuna Salamanca (in Spanish). 7 February 2022.
  18. ^ a b "El PP se aleja más de la mayoría en CyL, Vox será decisivo". El Español (in Spanish). 7 February 2022.
  19. ^ "El PSOE se atasca en Castilla y León y no suma con Podemos". La Razón (in Spanish). 7 February 2022.
  20. ^ "CASTILLA Y LEÓN. Encuesta NC Report 07/02/2022: PODEMOS-IU-AV 6,5% (2/3), PSOE 28,0% (26/28), UPL 3,6% (2/3), EV-VB-SY 4,2% (1/4), Cs 4,3% (1), XAV 0,9% (1), PP 34,7% (34/37), VOX 14,7% (10/11)". Electograph (in Spanish). 7 February 2022.
  21. ^ "El PP pierde fuelle durante una campaña que refuerza a Vox como llave de gobierno". El Norte de Castilla (in Spanish). 7 February 2022.
  22. ^ "Mañueco paga la desmovilización de sus votantes y retrocede ante el empuje de Vox". El Debate (in Spanish). 7 February 2022.
  23. ^ "El desplome del PP obligará a Mañueco a meter a Vox en el Gobierno en Castilla y León". VozPópuli (in Spanish). 7 February 2022.
  24. ^ "El PP se desinfla y ya está abocado a negociar con Vox". El Mundo (in Spanish). 6 February 2022.
  25. ^ "CASTILLA Y LEÓN. Encuesta SigmaDos 06/02/2022: PODEMOS-IU-AV 6,5% (2/3), PSOE 29,4% (26/30), UPL 3,8% (2/3), SY 3,5% (2/3), Cs 4,1% (1), XAV 1,3% (1), PP 36,5% (34/37), VOX 12,8% (9/11)". Electograph (in Spanish). 6 February 2022.
  26. ^ "El PP solo podrá gobernar en Castilla y León si se alía con Vox". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 6 February 2022.
  27. ^ "CASTILLA Y LEÓN. Encuesta Ágora Integral 06/02/2022: PODEMOS-IU-AV 7,8% (3), PSOE 27,2% (27/28), UPL 3,2% (2/3), EV-VB-SY 5,3% (3/4), ZD 0,8% (0/1), Cs 4,9% (1), XAV 1,3% (1), PP 32,7% (31/32), VOX 15,2% (10/11)". Electograph (in Spanish). 6 February 2022.
  28. ^ a b c d e "Tendencias de voto en la Comunidad Autónoma de Castilla y León (Estudio nº 3350. Enero-febrero 2022)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 February 2022.
  29. ^ "Estimación de voto (Estudio nº 3348. Tendencias de voto en la Comunidad Autónoma de Castilla y León. Enero-febrero 2022)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 February 2022.
  30. ^ "El PP necesitaría a Vox para retener el Gobierno de Castilla y León". El País (in Spanish). 7 February 2022.
  31. ^ a b c "40dB. Informe preelectoral para Castilla y León. Febrero 2022" (PDF). 40dB (in Spanish). 7 February 2022.
  32. ^ "El PP se aleja de la mayoría absoluta en Castilla y León pero aún suma más escaños que la izquierda". OKDiario (in Spanish). 4 February 2022.
  33. ^ "PaneCyL (2F): Igea recupera terreno, suben UP y UPL. La suma de PP y Vox, baja". Electomanía (in Spanish). 2 February 2022.
  34. ^ "Una gran bolsa de indecisos determinará si el PP rentabiliza su crecimiento electoral". La Opinión de Zamora (in Spanish). 6 February 2022.
  35. ^ "CASTILLA Y LEÓN. Encuesta GESOP 06/02/2022: PODEMOS-IU-AV 6,8% (3), PSOE 31,0% (27/31), UPL 3,1% (2), EV/SY 2,8% (2), Cs 6,9% (2/3), XAV 0,7% (1), PP 34,7% (32/35), VOX 10,3% (7/10)". Electograph (in Spanish). 6 February 2022.
  36. ^ "El PP ganaría las elecciones en Castilla y León y tendría varias opciones para alcanzar la mayoría absoluta". Onda Cero (in Spanish). 6 February 2022.
  37. ^ "CASTILLA Y LEÓN. Encuesta Celeste-Tel 06/02/2022: PODEMOS-IU-AV 6,6% (3), PSOE 28,2% (26), UPL 3,8% (3), EV-VB-SY 4,7% (4), ZAMORA DECIDE 0,9% (1), Cs 4,2% (1), XAV 1,4% (1), PP 33,3% (32), VOX 15,1% (10)". Electograph (in Spanish). 6 February 2022.
  38. ^ "PaneCyL (31E): UP supera el 8%, baja el PSOE y se mantienen los bloques". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 January 2022.
  39. ^ "El PP pierde fuelle en Castilla y León pero suma más escaños que la izquierda y gobernará gracias a Vox". OKDiario (in Spanish). 31 January 2022.
  40. ^ "Mañueco llega a la campaña abocado a apoyarse en la ultraderecha para gobernar, según las encuestas". Público (in Spanish). 27 January 2022.
  41. ^ "El PP rozaría la mayoría absoluta en las elecciones de Castilla y León y Vox irrumpiría como tercera fuerza, según la encuesta de Sigma Dos". Antena 3 (in Spanish). 25 January 2022.
  42. ^ "PaneCyL (26E): la distancia entre PP y PSOE, en 3 puntos. UP y Vox siguen subiendo y UPL recupera el tercer procurador". Electomanía (in Spanish). 26 January 2022.
  43. ^ "Mañueco se aleja de la mayoría absoluta: España Vaciada y Podemos le dejan en manos de Vox". El Español (in Spanish). 27 January 2022.
  44. ^ "CASTILLA Y LEÓN. Encuesta SocioMétrica 27/01/2022: PODEMOS-IU-AV 7,5% (3), PSOE 27,8% (28), UPL 3,0% (2), EV-VB-SY ?% (3), Cs 5,0% (1), XAV 0,6%, PP 33,8% (34), VOX 14,1% (10)". Electograph (in Spanish). 27 January 2022.
  45. ^ "Encuestas Castilla y León: El PP de Mañueco arrasaría en las elecciones y Ciudadanos podría desaparecer de las Cortes". Onda Cero (in Spanish). 27 January 2022.
  46. ^ "CASTILLA Y LEÓN. Encuesta Celeste-Tel 27/01/2022: PODEMOS-IU-AV 6,6% (3), PSOE 28,0% (25), UPL 3,0% (2), EV-VB-SY 4,7% (4), ZAMORA DECIDE 0,8% (1), Cs 4,5% (1), XAV 1,3% (1), PP 35,9% (34), VOX 14,0% (10)". Electograph (in Spanish). 27 January 2022.
  47. ^ "PaneCyL (24E): subida de Vox, que arrebata el tercer procurador a UPL. Bajada del PP". Electomanía (in Spanish). 24 January 2022.
  48. ^ a b c d e "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2022. Comunidad Autónoma de Castilla y León (Estudio nº 3348. Enero 2022)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 26 January 2022.
  49. ^ "Estimación de voto (Estudio nº 3348. Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2022. Comunidad Autónoma de Castilla y León. Enero 2022)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 26 January 2022.
  50. ^ "El PP ganaría en Castilla y León pero quedaría lejos de la mayoría absoluta". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 25 January 2022.
  51. ^ "CASTILLA Y LEÓN. Encuesta IMOP Insights 25/01/2022: PODEMOS-IU-AV 7,1% (3/4), PSOE 29,9% (28/29), UPL 3,1% (2), SY 1,1% (1/2), Cs 4,6% (1/2), PP 35,7% (33/36), VOX 13,0% (9/11)". Electograph (in Spanish). 25 January 2022.
  52. ^ "Mañueco roza la mayoría absoluta y podría gobernar en solitario". La Razón (in Spanish). 24 January 2022.
  53. ^ "CASTILLA Y LEÓN. Encuesta NC Report 24/01/2022: PODEMOS-IU-AV 6,3% (2), PSOE 28,3% (26/28), UPL 3,2% (2), SY 1,3% (1/2), VB 1,5% (1), EV 1,9% (0/1), Cs 3,1% (1), XAV 0,8% (1), PP 38,5% (36/38), VOX 13,2% (9)". Electograph (in Spanish). 24 January 2022.
  54. ^ "Mañueco supera a toda la izquierda y deja al PSOE sin ninguna opción de gobierno". El Debate (in Spanish). 24 January 2022.
  55. ^ "PaneCyL (19E): UP logra el tercer procurador, bajada de PP y PSOE". Electomanía (in Spanish). 19 January 2022.
  56. ^ "PaneCyL (17E): baja el PSOE, suben PP y Vox. UPL a punto del tercer procurador". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 January 2022.
  57. ^ "La precampaña del 13F hunde a Ciudadanos y acerca al PP a la mayoría absoluta". El Norte de Castilla (in Spanish). 17 January 2022.
  58. ^ "Encuesta ABC. Estimación de elecciones en Castilla y León". GAD3 (in Spanish). 17 January 2022.
  59. ^ "PaneCyL (10E): bajada del PSOE. España Vaciada dificulta a Mañueco la gobernabilidad sin Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 10 January 2022.
  60. ^ "El patinazo de Garzón dispara a PP y Vox y permitirá a Mañueco gobernar en solitario". VozPópuli (in Spanish). 10 January 2022.
  61. ^ "Mañueco tiene la mayoría absoluta a un escaño, PSOE y Cs se estrellan y Vox ya es tercera fuerza". OKDiario (in Spanish). 11 January 2022.
  62. ^ "PaneCyL (2E): continúa la incertidumbre sobre el próximo Gobierno de la Junta". Electomanía (in Spanish). 2 January 2022.
  63. ^ "El PP también vincula su destino a Vox en Castilla y León por la desaparición de Cs, según las encuestas". Público (in Spanish). 3 January 2022.
  64. ^ "PaneCyL (27D): a Mañueco se le complica la absoluta. León Ruge podría obtener procurador". Electomanía (in Spanish). 27 December 2021.
  65. ^ "Mañueco necesitará a la ultraderecha o a los leonesistas para seguir gobernando". El Norte de Castilla (in Spanish). 26 December 2021.
  66. ^ "Encuesta El Norte de Castilla. Estimación de elecciones en Castilla y León". GAD3 (in Spanish). 27 December 2021.
  67. ^ "Mañueco, a 5 escaños de la mayoría absoluta, tendría que pactar con Vox en vez de con Ciudadanos". El Español (in Spanish). 26 December 2021.
  68. ^ "CASTILLA Y LEÓN. Encuesta SocioMétrica 26/12/2021: IU 2,4%, PODEMOS 5,2% (1), PSOE 29,2% (28), UPL 2,9% (2), SORIA ¡YA! 0,8% (1), BURGOS ENRAÍZA 0,2%, AHORA DECIDE 0,2%, Cs 5,1% (1), XAV 0,9% (1), PP 37,1% (36), VOX 14,0% (11)". Electograph (in Spanish). 26 December 2021.
  69. ^ "Mañueco, al filo de la mayoría absoluta en Castilla y León, donde Vox entra con fuerza". El Mundo (in Spanish). 4 January 2022.
  70. ^ "CASTILLA Y LEÓN. Encuesta SigmaDos 04/01/2022: PODEMOS-IU 5,7% (1/3), PSOE 31,9% (27/31), UPL 3,0% (3), Cs 5,1% (1), XAV 0,7% (0/1), PP 40,3% (37/42), VOX 10,4% (5/9)". Electograph (in Spanish). 4 January 2022.
  71. ^ a b "El PP podría gobernar en solitario en Castilla y León, como Ayuso en Madrid". NIUS (in Spanish). 23 December 2021.
  72. ^ "Encuesta NIUS. Estimación de elecciones en Castilla y León". GAD3 (in Spanish). 23 December 2021.
  73. ^ "El PP ganaría las elecciones y podría llegar a gobernar con mayoría absoluta". RTVCyL (in Spanish). 29 December 2021.
  74. ^ "Mañueco está a 2 escaños de la mayoría absoluta y gobernará cómodamente con la abstención de Vox". OKDiario (in Spanish). 21 December 2021.
  75. ^ "Génova calcula que Mañueco está sólo a tres escaños de la mayoría absoluta". El Periódico de España (in Spanish). 20 December 2021.
  76. ^ "EP CyL (20D): Mañueco cae tras el adelanto y queda en manos de Vox. Sube el PSOE. Soria ¡YA! consigue representación". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 December 2021.
  77. ^ "EP Castilla y León (15D): Subida de Vox (10 procuradores) que deja sin absoluta al PP. Mañueco, o pacta con UPL o con Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 December 2021.
  78. ^ "Mañueco, a un paso de conseguir la mayoría absoluta". La Razón (in Spanish). 22 November 2021.
  79. ^ "El PP ganaría las elecciones con entre 34 y 37 procuradores y UPL obtendría un segundo representante". Leónoticias (in Spanish). 4 November 2021.
  80. ^ "CASTILLA Y LEÓN. Encuesta SigmaDos 25/06/2021: PODEMOS-EQUO 6,5% (2), PSOE 29,5% (28), UPL 2,2% (1), Cs 3,5%, XAV 0,5%, PP 43,8% (43), VOX 10,0% (7)". Electograph (in Spanish). 25 June 2021.
  81. ^ "El PP recupera la mayoría absoluta". El Norte de Castilla (in Spanish). 6 June 2021.
  82. ^ "Encuesta electoral para El Norte de Castilla: Estimación de voto en Elecciones Autonómicas de Castilla y León". GAD3 (in Spanish). 6 June 2021.
  83. ^ "Estimación Abril 2021. Castilla y León. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 31 March 2021.
  84. ^ "El PP gana por la mínima en la Junta y Vox se dispara tras la moción de censura". La Nueva Crónica (in Spanish). 31 March 2021.
  85. ^ "El PP ganaría las elecciones y se quedaría a tres procuradores de una mayoría que le daría C's". RTVCyL (in Spanish). 16 December 2020.
  86. ^ "EP (15S): Ciudadanos se crece en Castilla y León y sería decisivo para el próximo gobierno". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 September 2020.
  87. ^ "El PP volvería a ganar las elecciones y dependería de Vox para formar gobierno en Castilla y León". RTVCyL (in Spanish). 27 May 2020.[permanent dead link]
  88. ^ "El PP volvería a ganar las elecciones en Castilla y León con el 36.6 % de los votos". Sigma Dos (in Spanish). 28 May 2020.
  89. ^ "EP (17My): Castilla y León – subidón de Mañueco, que roza la absoluta". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  90. ^ "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  91. ^ "Matriz de transferencia de voto en Castilla y León. Enero 2022". El Español (in Spanish). 27 January 2022.
  92. ^ "Matriz de transferencia de voto. Diciembre 2021". El Español (in Spanish). 26 December 2021.
  93. ^ "Mañueco es el líder mejor valorado y el preferido como próximo presidenteMañueco es el líder mejor valorado y el preferido como próximo presidente". La Opinión de Zamora (in Spanish). 6 February 2022.
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