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Central Nova

Central Nova
Nova Scotia electoral district
Central Nova in relation to the other Nova Scotia federal electoral districts
Federal electoral district
LegislatureHouse of Commons
MP
 
 		 
Sean Fraser
Liberal
District created1966
First contested1968
Last contested2021
District webpageprofile, map
Demographics
Population (2016)[1]71,962
Electors (2021)60,073
Area (km²)[1]9,308
Pop. density (per km²)7.7
Census division(s)Antigonish
Guysborough
Halifax
Pictou
Census subdivision(s)Halifax, New Glasgow, Stellarton, Antigonish, Pictou, Westville, Trenton, St. Mary's

Central Nova (French: Nova-Centre) is a federal electoral district in Nova Scotia, Canada that was represented in the House of Commons of Canada from 1968 until 1996. In 1996, Antigonish County and part of Guysborough County were placed with Pictou County in a new electoral boundaries configuration to form the electoral district of Pictou-Antigonish-Guysborough. A new version of Central Nova was established in 2003[2] and — in conjunction with the Pictou-Antigonish-Guysborough iteration — represented a significant electoral boundaries change with specific reference to Antigonish County. Between 1867 and 1997, Antigonish County was not in a riding that included Pictou County; rather, it comprised either its own electoral district (Antigonish), or part of other districts shared with Eastern Nova Scotia (Antigonish-Guysborough)[3] and Cape Breton Island communities (Cape Breton Highlands Canso, 1968–1997).[4] In 2013, part of Antigonish County was "placed back" with communities in the electoral district of Cape Breton Canso,[5] a riding which had emerged in part from the former Cape Breton Highlands Canso riding in 1996.[5] The current version of Central Nova includes Pictou County, parts of Antigonish and Guysborough Counties (including the Town of Antigonish and the Municipality of the District of St. Mary's) and extends into Halifax Regional Municipality.[6]

Demographics

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Historical population
YearPop.±%
200174,445—    
200672,966−2.0%
2011 (2003 redist.)72,114−1.2%
2011 (2015 redist.)74,597+3.4%
201671,962−3.5%

From the 2021 census[7]

Ethnic groups:

Languages:

Religions:

Age:

Median Age:

Median total income:

Average total income:

Median household income:

Average household income:

Geography

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The district covers all or part of the following counties:

Specifically, it includes the following municipal corporations:

Communities include:

Pictou County
Antigonish County (as part of the county portion placed in Central Nova)
Guysborough County (as part of the county portion placed in Central Nova)
Halifax County (as part of the county portion placed in Central Nova)

The electoral district has an area of 8,439 km2.

Political geography

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In 2008, the riding had the unusual scenario of having Green Party leader Elizabeth May run without any Liberal opposition. Thus, the race was mostly between Conservative candidate Peter MacKay and May. May's support was concentrated in the community of Antigonish. Outside this area, she won just a few pockets of support. She was nearly shut out in the New Glasgow metropolitan area, where she won just one poll. MacKay won most of the rest of the riding, and the NDP picked up three polls.[8]

History

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The district was created in 1966 from Antigonish—Guysborough (with part of Guysborough added to Central Nova, while Antigonish County and a portion of Guysborough were placed with the Cape Breton Highlands Canso riding),[4] Colchester—Hants, and Pictou. In sum, in 1966, Central Nova consisted of Pictou County, southern Colchester County, eastern Halifax County, and western Guysborough County.[9] In 1976, it gained some territory in Halifax County (eastern central portion), and it lost its territory in Colchester County. In 1987, it lost most of Guysborough County except for the most extreme western point, and gained all of central and central western Halifax County. In 1996, it was merged into Pictou—Antigonish—Guysborough, and Sackville—Eastern Shore.

The electoral district was re-created in 2003: 93.3% of the riding came from Pictou—Antigonish—Guysborough riding, and 6.7% came from Sackville—Musquodoboit Valley—Eastern Shore. In the 2004 election, Conservative Party candidate Peter MacKay, who had represented Pictou—Antigonish—Guysborough, was returned to the House of Commons from Central Nova. He was re-elected in the 2006 election.

Green Party leader Elizabeth May contested the seat in the 2008 federal election. In a move that startled political observers, Liberal leader Stéphane Dion announced on April 13, 2007, that his party would not contest the seat in order to give May a better chance of winning, a move that marked the first time in decades that the Liberals did not field a full slate of candidates in a general election. In return, the Greens (who also fielded a full slate in the last election) did not contest Dion's Montreal riding. After coming in second to Peter MacKay, May announced she would not run in Central Nova in the next federal election.

Its new boundaries, determined during 2012 federal electoral boundaries redistribution, have been legally defined in the 2013 representation order. The new boundaries encompass most of the pre-2012 riding as well as a portion of Nova Scotia represented in the current electoral districts of Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley and Sackville—Eastern Shore. It lost 9% of its previous territory to Cape Breton—Canso,[10] territory that, for decades prior to this, had already been part of Cape Breton Highlands Canso.[4] It came into effect upon the call of the 42nd Canadian federal election, which took place on 19 October 2015.[11]

Members of Parliament

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This riding has elected the following members of Parliament:

Parliament Years Member Party
Central Nova
Riding created from Antigonish—Guysborough,
Colchester—Hants and Pictou
28th  1968–1971     Russell MacEwan Progressive Conservative
 1971–1972 Elmer MacKay
29th  1972–1974
30th  1974–1979
31st  1979–1980
32nd  1980–1983
 1983–1984 Brian Mulroney
33rd  1984–1988 Elmer MacKay
34th  1988–1993
35th  1993–1997     Roseanne Skoke Liberal
Riding dissolved into Pictou—Antigonish—Guysborough
and Sackville—Eastern Shore
Riding re-created from Pictou—Antigonish—Guysborough
and Sackville—Musquodoboit Valley—Eastern Shore
38th  2004–2006     Peter MacKay Conservative
39th  2006–2008
40th  2008–2011
41st  2011–2015
42nd  2015–2019     Sean Fraser Liberal
43rd  2019–2021
44th  2021–present

Election results

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Graph of election results in Central Nova from 2003-present (minor parties that never got 2% of the vote or didn't run consistently are omitted)

2021

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2021 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Liberal Sean Fraser 18,682 45.89 -0.4 $88,208.43
Conservative Steven Cotter 13,060 32.08 +2.6 $38,393.01
New Democratic Betsy MacDonald 6,225 15.29 +2.3 $11,093.54
People's Al Muir 1,445 3.55 +1.5 $0.00
Green Katerina Nikas 494 1.21 -6.6 $0.00
Independent Harvey Henderson 365 0.90 N/A $0.00
Communist Chris Frazer 138 0.34 -0.1 $0.00
Rhinoceros Ryan Smyth 65 0.16 N/A $0.00
Total valid votes/expense limit 40,474 99.4 +0.3 $107,714.33
Total rejected ballots 236 0.58 -0.3
Turnout 40,710 66.7 -7.8
Registered voters 61,073
Liberal hold Swing -1.5
Source: Elections Canada[12][13][14]
2021 federal election redistributed results[15]
Party Vote %
  Liberal 18,031 44.30
  Conservative 13,370 32.85
  New Democratic 6,572 16.15
  People's 1,624 3.99
  Green 620 1.52
  Others 484 1.19

2019

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2019 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Liberal Sean Fraser 20,718 46.59 −11.94 $99,263.87
Conservative George Canyon 13,201 29.69 +3.89 $89,511.25
New Democratic Betsy MacDonald 5,806 13.06 +2.82 none listed
Green Barry Randle 3,478 7.82 +3.68 $6,467.76
People's Al Muir 938 2.11 New $2,862.69
Communist Chris Frazer 180 0.40 New $749.95
Independent Michael Slowik 149 0.33 New $0.00
Total valid votes/expense limit 44,470 100.0     $102,724.82
Total rejected ballots 412 0.92 +0.40
Turnout 44,882 74.49 −0.19
Eligible voters 60,251
Liberal hold Swing −7.92
Source: Elections Canada[16]

2015

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2015 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Liberal Sean Fraser 25,909 58.53 +44.58 $113,362.49
Conservative Fred DeLorey 11,418 25.80 –29.49 $109,137.26
New Democratic Ross Landry 4,532 10.24 –16.57 $63,038.54
Green David Hachey 1,834 4.14 +0.34 $11,206.15
Independent Alexander J. MacKenzie 570 1.29 – –
Total valid votes/expense limit 44,263 100.00   $204,540.28
Total rejected ballots 233 0.52
Turnout 44,496 74.68
Eligible voters 59,585
Liberal gain from Conservative Swing +37.04
Source: Elections Canada[17][18]
2011 federal election redistributed results[19]
Party Vote %
  Conservative 21,494 55.29
  New Democratic 10,422 26.81
  Liberal 5,424 13.95
  Green 1,479 3.80
  Others 57 0.15

2011

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2011 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Conservative Peter MacKay 21,593 56.79 +10.19 $66,993.75
New Democratic David Parker 9,412 24.75 +5.19 $22,391.41
Liberal John Hamilton 5,614 14.76 – $38,162.02
Green Matthew Chisholm 1,406 3.70 -28.54 $3,941.29
Total valid votes/expense limit 38,025 100.0     $83,138.94
Total rejected, unmarked and declined ballots 226 0.59 -0.18
Turnout 38,251 65.00 -2.01
Eligible voters 57,963
Conservative hold Swing +2.50
Sources:[20][21]

2008

[edit]
2008 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Conservative Peter MacKay 18,240 46.60 +5.94 $61,468.89
Green Elizabeth May 12,620 32.24 +30.65 $57,490.60
New Democratic Louise Lorifice 7,659 19.56 -13.33 $39,917.36
Christian Heritage Michael Harris MacKay 427 1.09 – none listed
Canadian Action Paul Kemp 196 0.50 – $87.79
Total valid votes/expense limit 39,142 100.0     $80,462
Total rejected, unmarked and declined ballots 304 0.77 +0.42
Turnout 39,446 67.01 -2.16
Eligible voters 58,863
Conservative hold Swing -24.71

2006

[edit]
2006 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Conservative Peter MacKay 17,134 40.66 -2.61 $55,938.56
New Democratic Alexis MacDonald 13,861 32.89 +5.23 $28,582.28
Liberal Dan Walsh 10,349 24.56 -1.83 $43,064.69
Green David Orton 671 1.59 -1.09 $901.04
Marxist–Leninist Allan H. Bezanson 124 0.29 – none listed
Total valid votes/expense limit 42,139 100.0     $75,651
Total rejected, unmarked and declined ballots 147 0.35 -0.17
Turnout 42,286 69.17 +3.85
Eligible voters 61,137
Conservative hold Swing -3.92

2004

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2004 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Conservative Peter MacKay 16,376 43.27 -8.13 $53,745.97
New Democratic Alexis MacDonald 10,470 27.66 +14.84 $25,231.91
Liberal Susan Green 9,986 26.39 -3.95 $44,229.04
Green Rebecca Mosher 1,015 2.68 – $222.50
Total valid votes/expense limit 37,847 100.0     $73,053
Total rejected, unmarked and declined ballots 198 0.52
Turnout 38,045 65.32 -0.92
Eligible voters 58,240
Conservative notional gain from Progressive Conservative Swing -11.48
Changes from 2000 are based on redistributed results. Conservative Party change is based on the combination of Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative Party totals.
2000 federal election redistributed results
Party Vote %
  Progressive Conservative 17,969 47.53
  Liberal 11,471 30.34
  New Democratic 4,845 12.82
  Alliance 2,976 7.87
  Others 541 1.43
Graph of election results in Central Nova from 1966-1996 (minor parties that never got 2% of the vote or didn't run consistently are omitted)

1993

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1993 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Roseanne Skoke 16,399 43.61 +5.22
Progressive Conservative Ken Streatch 11,916 31.69 -16.89
Reform Howard Mackinnon 6,068 16.14
New Democratic Hugh Mackenzie 2,446 6.50 -6.52
National Gerard W. Horgan 511 1.36  
Natural Law Pulkesh Lakhanpal 266 0.71  
Total valid votes 37,606 100.00

1988

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1988 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Progressive Conservative Elmer MacKay 19,065 48.58 -12.42
Liberal Marion Anderson 15,066 38.39 +12.39
New Democratic Gloria Murphy 5,110 13.02 +0.02
Total valid votes 39,241 100.00

1984

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1984 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Progressive Conservative Elmer MacKay 21,462 61.00 +0.81
Liberal Al Lomas 9,148 26.00 +0.95
New Democratic Gloria E. Murphy 4,572 13.00 -0.39
Total valid votes 35,182 100.00

1983 by-election

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Canadian federal by-election, 29 August 1983
On the resignation of Elmer MacKay, 15 June 1983
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Progressive Conservative Brian Mulroney 18,882 60.19 +12.16
Liberal Alvin Sinclair 7,858 25.05 -9.21
New Democratic Roy G. Demarsh 4,202 13.39 -4.32
Independent Anne McBride 287 0.91
Independent Bob Robert Kirk 97 0.31
Independent John Turmel 46 0.15
Total valid votes 31,372 100.00

1980

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1980 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Progressive Conservative Elmer MacKay 15,576 48.03 -8.55
Liberal Alvin Sinclair 11,111 34.26 +4.37
New Democratic Gary A. Chambers 5,743 17.71 +4.18
Total valid votes 32,430 100.00
lop.parl.ca

1979

[edit]
1979 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Progressive Conservative Elmer MacKay 18,907 56.58 +2.65
Liberal Lloyd P. Mackay 9,988 29.89 -6.41
New Democratic Gary A. Chambers 4,521 13.53 +4.67
Total valid votes 33,416 100.00

1974

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1974 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Progressive Conservative Elmer MacKay 17,459 53.93 -3.02
Liberal Fern Dunn 11,753 36.30 +7.33
New Democratic John Rod Brown 2,869 8.86 -3.98
Social Credit John J. Henderson 292 0.90 -0.34
Total valid votes 32,373 100.00

1972

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1972 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Progressive Conservative Elmer MacKay 18,259 56.95 +4.37
Liberal D. Laurence Mawhinney 9,288 28.97 -9.37
New Democratic John Rod Brown 4,117 12.84 +6.20
Social Credit John J. Henderson 397 1.24 -1.20
Total valid votes 32,061 100.00

1971 by-election

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Canadian federal by-election, 31 May 1971
On the resignation of Russell MacEwan, 14 January 1971
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Progressive Conservative Elmer MacKay 15,359 52.58 -5.99
Liberal Clarrie Mackinnon 11,200 38.34 +5.07
New Democratic Allan M. Marchbank 1,940 6.64 -1.52
Social Credit John J. Henderson 714 2.44
Total valid votes 29,213 100.00

1968

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1968 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes %
Progressive Conservative Russell MacEwan 16,720 58.57
Liberal Donald F. Stewart 9,499 33.27
New Democratic Leo F. McKay 2,330 8.16
Total valid votes 28,549 100.00

See also

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References

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b Statistics Canada: 2012
  2. ^ "Profile". lop.parl.ca. Retrieved June 21, 2022.
  3. ^ "Profile". lop.parl.ca. Retrieved June 21, 2022.
  4. ^ a b c "Profile". lop.parl.ca. Retrieved June 21, 2022.
  5. ^ a b "Profile". lop.parl.ca. Retrieved June 21, 2022.
  6. ^ Canada, Library of Parliament. "Central Nova, Nova Scotia (2004-05-23 - )". lop.parl.ca. Retrieved June 21, 2022.
  7. ^ "Census Profile, 2021 Census, Statistics Canada - Validation Error".
  8. ^ "Riding « Pundits' Guide to Canadian Federal Elections".
  9. ^ "Profile". lop.parl.ca. Retrieved June 21, 2022.
  10. ^ Commission's Report – Nova Scotia
  11. ^ Timeline for the Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts
  12. ^ "Confirmed candidates — Central Nova". Elections Canada. Retrieved September 20, 2021.
  13. ^ "September 20, 2021 General Election - Election Results". Elections Canada. Retrieved October 10, 2021.
  14. ^ "Candidate Campaign Returns". Elections Canada. Retrieved July 19, 2022.
  15. ^ "Transposition of Votes from the 44th General Election to the 2023 Representation Orders". Elections Canada. Retrieved April 9, 2024.
  16. ^ "Results Validated by the Returning Officer". Elections Canada. Retrieved October 25, 2019.
  17. ^ "October 19, 2015 Election Results — Central Nova (Validated results)". Elections Canada. October 21, 2015. Retrieved October 24, 2015.
  18. ^ Elections Canada – Preliminary Election Expenses Limits for Candidates Archived August 15, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
  19. ^ Pundits' Guide to Canadian Elections
  20. ^ Elections Canada – Official voting results, Forty-first general election, 2011
  21. ^ Elections Canada – Candidate's electoral campaign return, 41st general election
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