Climate change in Nicaragua

Climate change in Nicaragua carries significant implications for the Central American country as its geographical and systemic features make it extremely vulnerable.^[1] Climate change will cause Nicaragua to become hotter and drier during the 21st century.^[2] Along with temperature increase, climate change will bring an increased risk of natural disasters, like hurricanes and floods.^[3]

The impacts on the natural environment in Nicaragua will carry social and economic effects. Nicaragua's agricultural sector, especially smallholder farmers, will face challenges.^[4] The production of Nicaragua's largest export, coffee, is one of the agricultural sectors that will be impacted.^[4] As with other countries in Central America, the effects of climate change are thought to be a contributing factor to emigration from Nicaragua.^[5]

Nicaragua has outlined strategies for climate mitigation and has participated in climate conventions and agreements.^[6] Nicaragua's 2022 National Climate Change Policy describes climate policies to achieve adaption.^[7] However, Nicaragua faces challenges in implementing climate change related policy.^[8]

Part of Nicaragua's vulnerability to the effects of climate change is a result of its geographical location and geological features.^[9] Nicaragua is one of the most at-risk countries for natural disasters, ranking third among other Central American countries for the number of disasters between 1950 and 2016.^[10] Nicaragua is more likely to be exposed to extreme climate events, like floods, hurricanes, and droughts, which are projected to increase in frequency as a result of climate change.^[3]

Tropical cyclones pose a significant and consistent threat to Nicaragua, as its location increases its exposure to these events.^[11] In recent decades, the strength and wetness of tropical cyclones has increased, which scientists attribute to warming temperatures that impact both ocean and air temperature.^[12] Hurricanes in Nicaragua have been extremely destructive, notably Hurricane Mitch in 1998^[11] and the Eta and Iota hurricanes of 2020.^[12] As hurricanes are predicted to intensify in Nicaragua, measures to minimize risk following natural disasters is recommended by scientists.^[11]

Given the sensitive geographical position of Nicaragua, it is predicted to be subject to a larger increase in average temperature.^[3] It is already determined that since 1950 the average temperature has risen by 1 °C.^[10] This temperature increase is estimated to triple or quadruple in the next 100 years.^[3] Precipitation in the region is expected to decrease as the effects of climate change take hold.^[3] This decrease is especially significant for regions in Nicaragua that rely on certain climate conditions, like regions engaged in coffee production.^[13]

In 2022, 28% of Nicaragua's workforce was employed in agriculture.^[14] The agriculture sector was responsible for 15% of the GDP in 2023.^[14] Climate change threatens agricultural productivity, and maize, bean, and coffee crops are already being impacted.^[13] Nicaragua's GDP is likely to be damaged by climate change effects, with estimates that a 1 °C increase in temperature translates to a 1% decrease in productivity growth.^[10] The coffee industry is extremely important in Nicaragua, contributing significantly both to GDP and employment.^[13] Over 50% of agricultural employment is related to coffee production in Nicaragua.^[4] Additionally, smallholder coffee farmers are far more common. These farmers are more vulnerable to industry adversity, thus any climate change related agricultural loss will impact their livelihood.^[4] The coffee zones of Nicaragua are predicted to experience both precipitation declines and hotter temperatures by 2050.^[13] These estimates carry threatening implications for coffee farming.^[13] Temperature increases and a lack of precipitation will damage coffee production and quality, as the area that can support coffee production will narrow.^[13] This has led to some farmers experimenting with different varieties to make their crops more resilient.^[15]

Adverse effects of climate change could result in increased migration from Nicaragua.^[16] Globally, it is estimated that up to 216 million people could be displaced by climate change by 2050.^[17] In Nicaragua, added stress on agricultural and food systems as a result of increased droughts and rainfall could drive environmental migrants.^[16] Populations dependent on income from agriculture may be displaced as climate change harms crops and livestock. ^[5] Migration motivated by climate is a trend already seen in regions like Mexico during periods of crop failure, and environmental migrants from Nicaragua may become more common as climate change disrupts food and agricultural systems.^[16]

Nicaragua's ability to adapt to climate change and the accompanying impacts is hindered by its larger condition of poverty.^[10] Nearly a quarter of Nicaraguans lived in poverty in 2023 and Nicaragua is considered a low-income country, among the poorest when compared to other Latin American countries.^[18] Poverty creates an added challenge of funding climate change-related projects, such as reinforcing houses and buildings for inevitable climate disasters.^[10] The burden of climate change will be disproportionate for Nicaragua, especially considering Nicaragua has contributed only 0.01% of global cumulative CO2 emissions.^[19]

Climate change policy development and implementation are challenges for the Nicaraguan government.^[20] A lack of funding and a focus on other pressing issues, like political stability, create barriers for the government to prioritizing climate mitigation.^[20] While Nicaragua has climate change mitigation targets, it does not have a legal framework to reinforce these commitments.^[6]

Nicaragua has created official policy documents like the 2022 National Climate Change Policy, which focuses on addressing climate change through health, water management, conservation, and sustainable resource use.^[21] The Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources (MARENA), established in 1979, is Nicaragua's primary government institution that oversees projects and research to address climate change.^[22] Nicaragua has created a goal to reduce its emissions by 8% by 2030, aligning with a global net-zero vision.^[6] Their strategy to achieve this goal involves strengthening their renewable energy sector and protecting their forests.^[6]

Nicaragua is part of many climate-related agreements, including the Climate-Resilient Sustainable Agriculture Strategy for the SICA Region 2018-2030, which outlines mitigation strategies.^[6] Nicaragua ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 1999^[23] and ratified the Paris Agreement in 2017.^[24] The country initially did not ratify the agreement, due to its climate envoy Paul Oquist's opposition to the voluntary nature of nationally determined contributions.^[23]