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2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election
2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina
← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
Turnout64.26% Increase[1]
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 15 0
Popular vote 1,961,166 1,525,849
Percentage 56.02% 43.58%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

Elections in North Carolina
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives
State executive
Gubernatorial elections
Lieutenant Governor elections
Attorney General elections
Council of State elections
Secretary of State elections
State legislature
State Senate elections
State House elections
State judiciary
Judicial elections
Ballot measures
2012
Amendment 1
Mayoral elections
Charlotte mayoral elections
Cary mayoral elections
Durham mayoral elections
Fayetteville mayoral elections
Greensboro mayoral elections
Raleigh mayoral elections
Winston-Salem mayoral elections

The 2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

North Carolina was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 12.44% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or a red state. North Carolina was also the home state of Democratic Party vice presidential nominee John Edwards, who was then representing the state in the United States Senate. This was not enough for Democrats to break Republican success in this state since Jimmy Carter's victory in 1976. While winning the state comfortably, Bush's margin of 12.44% was 0.39% lower than his 2000 performance, making it the only Southern state to swing more Democratic than 2000.

Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Mecklenburg or Guilford counties since Calvin Coolidge in 1924.

Primaries

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Campaign

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Predictions

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There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Likely R
Cook Political Report Lean R
Research 2000 Lean R
Zogby International Likely R
Washington Post Likely R
Washington Dispatch Likely R
Washington Times Solid R
The New York Times Solid R
CNN Likely R
Newsweek Lean R
Associated Press Lean R
Rasmussen Reports Likely R

Polling

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Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3-poll average showed Bush leading 52% to 44%.[3]

Fundraising

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Bush raised $4,465,160.[4] Kerry raised $2,049,794.[5]

Advertising and visits

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Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.[6][7]

Analysis

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John Edwards failed to make his home state competitive in the general election.[8] In 2000, George W. Bush had performed strongly in most of the South, including North Carolina, which he had won by 12.83%. As in most of the rest of the South, he did so once again in North Carolina, notwithstanding Edwards' presence on the Democratic ticket, although his margin of victory did go down slightly, to 12.44%, even as nationally he improved from losing the popular vote by 0.5% to winning it by 2.5%. Bush consistently led in polling leading up to election day.[9]

Bush won a majority of the 100 counties and congressional districts. The only region in the state that Kerry dominated in was the Northeastern black belt, the location of North Carolina's 1st congressional district. However, Kerry did narrowly flip two heavily populated counties, Mecklenburg and Guilford, which have gone on to give Democrats over 55% of the vote in every subsequent election as of 2020. He also cut Bush's margin in another heavily populated county, Wake, from 7.1% to 2.1%. As of 2020, Wake has gone on to give Democrats over 55% of the vote in every subsequent election save 2012. Large Democratic margins in these counties have been instrumental to making North Carolina competitive in every election from 2008 onward.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which Pitt County, Forsyth County, Wilson County, Wake County, Buncombe County, and Cumberland County voted for a Republican presidential candidate.[10]

As of 2020, this is also the last election in which a presidential candidate won North Carolina by double digits, as well as the last time the state was not seriously contested.

Results

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2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) Richard Cheney (incumbent) 1,961,166 56.02% 15
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 1,525,849 43.58% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 11,731 0.34% 0
Others N/A N/A 2,261 0.06% 0
Totals 3,501,007 100% 15
Voter turnout (Voting Age population) 55.4%

By county

[edit]
County George W. Bush
Republican 		John Kerry
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Alamance 33,302 61.47% 20,686 38.18% 187 0.35% 12,616 23.29% 54,175
Alexander 10,928 70.05% 4,618 29.60% 54 0.34% 6,310 40.45% 15,600
Alleghany 2,883 59.73% 1,922 39.82% 22 0.45% 961 19.91% 4,827
Anson 3,796 41.15% 5,413 58.68% 16 0.17% −1,617 −17.53% 9,225
Ashe 7,292 61.68% 4,477 37.87% 54 0.46% 2,815 23.81% 11,823
Avery 5,678 75.47% 1,805 23.99% 41 0.55% 3,873 51.48% 7,524
Beaufort 12,432 63.68% 7,025 35.99% 65 0.34% 5,407 27.69% 19,522
Bertie 3,057 38.06% 4,938 61.48% 37 0.46% −1,881 −23.42% 8,032
Bladen 6,174 50.14% 6,109 49.61% 30 0.24% 65 0.53% 12,313
Brunswick 22,925 60.37% 14,903 39.24% 149 0.39% 8,022 21.13% 37,977
Buncombe 52,491 49.99% 51,868 49.39% 654 0.63% 623 0.60% 105,013
Burke 18,922 61.51% 11,728 38.12% 112 0.37% 7,194 23.39% 30,762
Cabarrus 40,780 67.05% 19,803 32.56% 241 0.40% 20,977 34.49% 60,824
Caldwell 21,186 67.58% 9,999 31.90% 163 0.52% 11,187 35.68% 31,348
Camden 2,480 64.75% 1,339 34.96% 11 0.29% 1,141 29.79% 3,830
Carteret 17,716 69.27% 7,732 30.23% 127 0.50% 9,984 39.04% 25,575
Caswell 4,868 51.58% 4,539 48.10% 30 0.32% 329 3.48% 9,437
Catawba 39,602 67.48% 18,858 32.13% 228 0.39% 20,744 35.35% 58,688
Chatham 12,892 49.73% 12,897 49.75% 133 0.51% −5 −0.02% 25,922
Cherokee 7,517 67.12% 3,635 32.46% 47 0.42% 3,882 34.66% 11,199
Chowan 2,967 55.09% 2,406 44.67% 13 0.24% 561 10.42% 5,386
Clay 3,209 65.95% 1,628 33.46% 29 0.59% 1,581 32.49% 4,866
Cleveland 22,750 61.36% 14,215 38.34% 114 0.31% 8,535 23.02% 37,079
Columbus 10,773 50.84% 10,343 48.81% 75 0.36% 430 2.03% 21,191
Craven 23,575 62.44% 14,019 37.13% 162 0.43% 9,556 25.31% 37,756
Cumberland 49,139 51.60% 45,788 48.08% 299 0.31% 3,351 3.52% 95,226
Currituck 6,013 66.99% 2,909 32.41% 54 0.60% 3,104 34.58% 8,976
Dare 9,345 60.10% 6,136 39.46% 67 0.43% 3,209 20.64% 15,548
Davidson 42,075 70.72% 17,191 28.89% 230 0.39% 24,884 41.81% 59,496
Davie 12,372 74.17% 4,233 25.38% 75 0.45% 8,139 48.79% 16,680
Duplin 9,611 57.96% 6,923 41.75% 49 0.30% 2,688 16.21% 16,583
Durham 34,614 31.57% 74,524 67.96% 513 0.47% −39,910 −36.39% 109,651
Edgecombe 8,163 38.73% 12,877 61.09% 39 0.19% −4,714 −22.36% 21,079
Forsyth 75,294 54.12% 63,340 45.53% 491 0.35% 11,954 8.59% 139,125
Franklin 11,540 55.17% 9,286 44.39% 92 0.44% 2,254 10.78% 20,918
Gaston 43,252 67.84% 20,254 31.77% 249 0.39% 22,998 36.07% 63,755
Gates 1,924 47.47% 2,121 52.33% 8 0.20% −197 −4.86% 4,053
Graham 2,693 67.54% 1,272 31.90% 22 0.56% 1,421 35.64% 3,987
Granville 9,491 51.02% 9,057 48.69% 53 0.28% 434 2.33% 18,601
Greene 3,800 58.71% 2,665 41.18% 7 0.11% 1,135 17.53% 6,472
Guilford 98,254 49.30% 100,042 50.19% 1,018 0.51% −1,788 −0.89% 199,314
Halifax 8,088 41.17% 11,528 58.68% 31 0.16% −3,440 −17.51% 19,647
Harnett 20,922 64.24% 11,563 35.50% 86 0.26% 9,359 28.74% 32,571
Haywood 14,545 56.09% 11,237 43.33% 150 0.58% 3,308 12.76% 25,932
Henderson 28,025 64.82% 15,003 34.70% 206 0.48% 13,022 30.12% 43,234
Hertford 2,942 36.18% 5,141 63.22% 49 0.61% −2,199 −27.04% 8,132
Hoke 5,257 47.41% 5,794 52.25% 37 0.33% −267 −4.84% 11,088
Hyde 1,235 53.86% 1,048 45.70% 10 0.43% 187 8.16% 2,293
Iredell 38,675 67.88% 18,065 31.71% 233 0.41% 20,610 36.17% 56,973
Jackson 7,351 51.86% 6,737 47.53% 86 0.61% 614 4.33% 14,174
Johnston 36,903 67.89% 17,266 31.76% 188 0.35% 19,637 36.13% 54,357
Jones 2,607 57.77% 1,893 41.95% 13 0.29% 714 15.82% 4,513
Lee 11,834 60.55% 7,657 39.18% 52 0.27% 4,177 21.37% 19,543
Lenoir 12,939 55.82% 10,207 44.04% 33 0.14% 2,732 11.78% 23,179
Lincoln 20,052 67.79% 9,434 31.89% 93 0.32% 10,618 35.90% 29,579
Macon 9,448 62.89% 5,489 36.53% 87 0.58% 3,959 26.36% 15,024
Madison 5,175 54.69% 4,234 44.74% 54 0.57% 941 9.95% 9,463
Martin 5,334 51.03% 5,102 48.81% 16 0.15% 232 2.22% 10,452
McDowell 10,590 66.18% 5,330 33.31% 82 0.51% 5,260 32.87% 16,002
Mecklenburg 155,084 48.00% 166,828 51.63% 1,190 0.37% −11,744 −3.63% 323,102
Mitchell 5,686 72.92% 2,080 26.67% 32 0.41% 3,606 46.25% 7,798
Montgomery 5,745 56.99% 4,313 42.79% 22 0.22% 1,432 14.20% 10,080
Moore 24,714 64.39% 13,555 35.32% 113 0.30% 11,159 29.07% 38,382
Nash 21,902 58.14% 15,693 41.66% 78 0.21% 9,779 16.48% 37,673
New Hanover 45,351 55.82% 35,572 43.78% 324 0.40% 12,616 12.04% 81,247
Northampton 3,176 36.21% 5,584 63.67% 10 0.11% −2,408 −27.46% 8,770
Onslow 25,890 69.45% 11,250 30.18% 137 0.37% 14,640 39.27% 37,277
Orange 20,771 32.38% 42,910 66.89% 472 0.74% −22,139 −34.51% 64,153
Pamlico 3,679 60.93% 2,335 38.67% 24 0.40% 1,344 22.26% 6,038
Pasquotank 6,609 48.42% 6,984 51.17% 55 0.41% −375 −2.75% 13,648
Pender 10,037 58.75% 6,999 40.97% 49 0.28% 3,038 17.78% 17,085
Perquimans 2,965 59.80% 1,971 39.75% 22 0.44% 994 20.05% 4,958
Person 8,973 58.98% 6,198 40.74% 43 0.28% 2,775 18.24% 15,214
Pitt 28,590 53.30% 24,924 46.46% 129 0.24% 3,666 6.84% 53,643
Polk 5,140 56.98% 3,787 41.98% 94 1.05% 1,353 15.00% 9,021
Randolph 37,771 74.19% 12,966 25.47% 173 0.34% 24,805 48.72% 50,910
Richmond 7,709 47.75% 8,383 51.92% 53 0.33% −674 −4.17% 16,145
Robeson 15,909 46.97% 17,868 52.75% 94 0.28% −1,959 −5.78% 33,871
Rockingham 22,840 61.09% 14,430 38.60% 118 0.32% 8,410 22.49% 37,388
Rowan 34,915 67.32% 16,735 32.27% 217 0.42% 18,180 35.05% 51,867
Rutherford 16,343 66.28% 8,184 33.19% 131 0.53% 8,159 33.09% 24,658
Sampson 12,600 56.53% 9,649 43.29% 39 0.17% 2,951 13.24% 22,288
Scotland 5,141 44.52% 6,386 55.30% 20 0.17% −1,245 −10.78% 11,547
Stanly 17,814 69.71% 7,650 29.94% 89 0.35% 10,164 39.77% 25,553
Stokes 13,583 69.96% 5,767 29.71% 64 0.33% 7,816 40.25% 19,414
Surry 17,587 67.66% 8,304 31.95% 101 0.39% 9,283 35.71% 25,992
Swain 2,593 51.41% 2,419 47.96% 32 0.64% 174 3.45% 5,044
Transylvania 9,386 60.21% 6,097 39.11% 105 0.68% 3,289 21.10% 15,588
Tyrrell 855 53.77% 731 45.97% 4 0.25% 124 7.80% 1,590
Union 42,820 70.20% 17,974 29.47% 207 0.34% 24,846 40.73% 61,001
Vance 6,884 43.91% 8,762 55.89% 31 0.20% −1,878 −11.98% 15,677
Wake 177,324 50.83% 169,909 48.71% 1,611 0.46% 7,415 2.12% 348,844
Warren 2,840 35.38% 5,171 64.42% 16 0.20% −2,331 −29.04% 8,027
Washington 2,484 45.40% 2,969 54.27% 18 0.33% −485 −8.87% 5,471
Watauga 12,659 52.64% 11,232 46.70% 159 0.66% 1,427 5.94% 24,050
Wayne 24,883 62.14% 15,076 37.65% 87 0.22% 9,807 24.49% 40,046
Wilkes 19,197 70.70% 7,862 28.95% 95 0.35% 11,335 41.75% 27,154
Wilson 16,264 53.26% 14,206 46.52% 65 0.21% 2,058 6.74% 30,535
Yadkin 11,816 77.16% 3,451 22.54% 46 0.30% 8,365 54.62% 15,313
Yancey 4,940 52.38% 4,434 47.02% 57 0.60% 506 5.36% 9,431
Totals 1,961,166 56.02% 1,525,849 43.58% 13,992 0.40% 435,317 12.44% 3,501,007
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Bush won 9 of 13 congressional districts, including two held by Democrats.[11]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 42% 57% G. K. Butterfield
2nd 54% 46% Bob Etheridge
3rd 68% 32% Walter B. Jones
4th 44% 55% David Price
5th 66% 33% Richard Burr
Virginia Foxx
6th 69% 30% Howard Coble
7th 56% 44% Mike McIntyre
8th 54% 45% Robin Hayes
9th 63% 36% Sue Wilkins Myrick
10th 67% 33% Cass Ballenger
Patrick McHenry
11th 57% 43% Charles H. Taylor
12th 37% 63% Mel Watt
13th 47% 52% Brad Miller

Electors

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Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of North Carolina cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. North Carolina is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for Bush/Cheney:

  1. Joseph W. Powell
  2. Ann Sullivan
  3. William B. Carraway
  4. Sandra Carter
  5. William H. Trotter
  6. Thomas D. Luckadoo
  7. Judy Keener
  8. Marcia M. Spiegel
  9. Dewitt Rhoades
  10. Davey G. Williamson
  11. Theresa Esposito
  12. Elizabeth Kelly
  13. Larry W. Potts
  14. Joe Morgan
  15. Robert Rector

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Voter Turnout". North Carolina State Board of Elections.
  2. ^ "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved January 15, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  3. ^ "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Archived from the original on November 28, 2008. Retrieved October 10, 2009.
  4. ^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
  5. ^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
  6. ^ "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
  7. ^ "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
  8. ^ "USATODAY.com - Poll: Edwards pick gives Kerry's campaign a boost". www.usatoday.com.
  9. ^ "RealClear Politics - Polls". www.realclearpolitics.com.
  10. ^ Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
  11. ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". www.swingstateproject.com.