View text source at Wikipedia
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Turnout | 65.73%[1] 32.6% | ||||||||||||||||
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Cornyn: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Hegar: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Texas |
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Government |
The 2020 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member to the United States Senate to represent the State of Texas, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn won re-election to a fourth term against Democratic nominee MJ Hegar by 9.6%.
Prior to the election, most news organizations projected this race as "Lean Republican", and was not expected to be as competitive as the contest for Texas's other Senate seat two years prior, when Republican incumbent Ted Cruz defeated Democrat Beto O'Rourke by a 2.6% margin. Nonetheless, John Cornyn won in what was his worst performance out of his four elections for the U.S. Senate, while MJ Hegar's 43.9% marked the highest vote share of any of Cornyn's Democratic challengers. Despite this being Cornyn's worst performance percentage-wise, he more than doubled his 2014 vote count and received the most raw votes for a Republican U.S. Senate candidate in the history of the United States.
Cornyn outperformed President Donald Trump in the state by about 4%, and was able to carry two counties won by Joe Biden (Tarrant and Williamson). While Cornyn did better than Trump in the Texas Triangle, contributing to his over performance, Hegar slightly outperformed Biden in the heavily Hispanic Rio Grande Valley, and was able to carry one Trump county (Zapata), though Hegar herself vastly underperformed previous Democratic margins in the region.
U.S. senators
Statewide officials
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Virgil Bierschwale |
John Anthony Castro |
John Cornyn |
Dwayne Stovall |
Mark Yancey |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News[17] | January 21–30, 2020 | 445 (LV) | ± 4.65% | <1% | 5% | 62% | 3% | 1% | 30% |
Data for Progress[18][A] | January 16–21, 2020 | 687 (LV) | – | 1% | 0% | 75% | 2% | 1% | 22% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | John Cornyn (incumbent) | 1,470,669 | 76.04% | |
Republican | Dwayne Stovall | 231,104 | 11.95% | |
Republican | Mark Yancey | 124,864 | 6.46% | |
Republican | John Anthony Castro | 86,916 | 4.49% | |
Republican | Virgil Bierschwale | 20,494 | 1.06% | |
Total votes | 1,934,047 | 100.0% |
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Individuals
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Host network |
Date | Link(s) | Participants | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MJ Hegar |
Royce West |
Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez |
Annie Garcia |
Amanda Edwards | Chris Bell | Sema Hernandez |
Michael Cooper |
Victor Hugo Harris |
Adrian Ocegueda |
Jack Daniel Foster Jr. |
D. R. Hunter | |||
KHOU-11 | February 18, 2020 | [77] | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present | Absent |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Colin Allred |
Chris Bell |
Joaquín Castro |
Wendy Davis |
Amanda Edwards |
Annie Garcia |
MJ Hegar |
Sema Hernandez |
Beto O'Rourke |
Cristina Ramirez |
Royce West |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NBC News/Marist[78] | February 23–27, 2020 | 556 (LV) | ± 5.3% | – | 5% | – | – | 7% | – | 16% | 5% | – | 9% | 8% | 5%[b] | 34% |
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune[79] | January 31 – February 9, 2020 | 575 (LV)[c] | ± 4.09% | – | 7% | – | – | 6% | 5% | 22% | 5% | – | 9% | 6% | 40%[d] | – |
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News[80] | January 21–30, 2020 | 414 (LV) | ± 4.8% | – | 5% | – | – | 4% | 6% | 9% | 4% | – | 4% | 6% | 12%[e] | 52% |
Data for Progress[81][1][B] | January 16–21, 2020 | 684 (LV) | ± 6.5% | – | 8% | – | – | 3% | 4% | 18% | 3% | – | 13% | 12% | 4%[f] | 34%[g] |
Texas Lyceum[82] | January 10–19, 2020 | 401 (LV) | ± 4.89% | – | 5% | – | – | 6% | 4% | 11% | 5% | – | 7% | 8% | 35%[h] | 19% |
Filing deadline, by which Allred had not declared his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Annie Garcia announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
O'Rourke announces he will not run after end of presidential campaign[83] | ||||||||||||||||
Beacon Research (D)[84] | November 9–21, 2019 | 408 (LV) | – | – | 4% | – | – | – | – | 6% | 6% | 58% | – | 13% | – | – |
University of Texas at Tyler[85] | November 5–14, 2019 | 427 (RV) | ± 4.7% | – | 7% | – | – | 8% | – | 9% | – | – | 9% | 8% | 7% | 52% |
University of Texas/Texas Tribune[86] | October 18–29, 2019 | 541 (RV) | ± 4.21% | – | 3% | – | – | 0% | – | 12% | 6% | – | 4% | 5% | 13%[i] | 57% |
University of Texas/Texas Tribune[86] | August 29 – September 8, 2019 | 550 (RV) | ± 4.17% | – | 2% | – | – | 2% | – | 11% | 3% | – | 3% | 5% | 2%[j] | 66% |
Ragnar Research[87] | September 3–5, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | – | 9% | – | – | 10% | – | 12% | – | – | 10% | 10% | – | 49% |
Ramirez announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Emerson College/Dallas Morning News[88] | August 1–3, 2019 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | – | 6.6% | – | – | – | 5.2% | 9.9% | – | – | – | 7.9% | 19.1%[k] | 51.1% |
West announces his candidacy and Davis announces a 2020 House bid, confirming she will not run for US Senate | ||||||||||||||||
Edwards announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Bell announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Joaquín Castro announces he will not run | ||||||||||||||||
Hegar announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Change Research[89] | April 18–22, 2019 | 1,578 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 6%[l] | – | 56% | – | 1% | – | 4% | – | – | – | 3% | 31%[m] | – |
Public Policy Polling (D)[90][C] | March 5–7, 2019 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | – | 42% | 19% | – | – | 4% | 2% | – | – | – | 4%[n] | 29% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | MJ Hegar | 417,160 | 22.31% | |
Democratic | Royce West | 274,074 | 14.66% | |
Democratic | Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez | 246,659 | 13.19% | |
Democratic | Annie "Mamá" Garcia | 191,900 | 10.27% | |
Democratic | Amanda Edwards | 189,624 | 10.14% | |
Democratic | Chris Bell | 159,751 | 8.55% | |
Democratic | Sema Hernandez | 137,892 | 7.38% | |
Democratic | Michael Cooper | 92,463 | 4.95% | |
Democratic | Victor Hugo Harris | 59,710 | 3.19% | |
Democratic | Adrian Ocegueda | 41,566 | 2.22% | |
Democratic | Jack Daniel Foster Jr. | 31,718 | 1.70% | |
Democratic | D. R. Hunter | 26,902 | 1.44% | |
Total votes | 1,869,419 | 100.0% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
MJ Hegar |
Royce West |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TargetPoint[91][D] | July 8, 2020 | 830 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 39% | 35% | – | 26% |
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[92] | June 29 – July 7, 2020 | 829 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 35% | 22% | 11% | 32% |
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[93] | April 18–27, 2020 | 447 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 44% |
Data for Progress[81][2][B] | January 16–21, 2020 | 684 (LV) | ± 6.5% | 48% | 19% | – | 33% |
Ragnar Research[94] | September 3–5, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 26% | 24% | – | 50% |
Host network |
Date | Link(s) | Participants | |
---|---|---|---|---|
MJ Hegar |
Royce West | |||
KXAN-TV | June 6, 2020 | [95] | Present | Present |
KVUE | June 29, 2020 | [96] | Present | Present |
Hypothetical polling
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with MJ Hegar and Chris Bell
with MJ Hegar and Amanda Edwards
with MJ Hegar and Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez
|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | MJ Hegar | 502,516 | 52.24% | |
Democratic | Royce West | 459,457 | 47.76% | |
Total votes | 961,973 | 100.0% |
Host | Date & time | Link(s) | Participants | |
---|---|---|---|---|
John Cornyn (R) | MJ Hegar (D) | |||
Texas State History Museum | October 9, 2020 6:55pm MDT |
[106] | Present | Present |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Daily Kos[107] | Lean R | October 30, 2020 |
The Cook Political Report[108] | Lean R | October 29, 2020 |
Inside Elections[109] | Lean R | October 28, 2020 |
538[110] | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
RCP[111] | Lean R | October 23, 2020 |
DDHQ[112] | Likely R | November 3, 2020 |
Politico[113] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[114] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Economist[115] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
U.S. presidents
U.S. senators
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Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
John Cornyn vs. MJ Hegar | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | John Cornyn | MJ Hegar | Other/Undecided[o] | Margin |
270 To Win[137] | November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 48.6% | 43.4% | 8.0% | Cornyn +5.2 |
Real Clear Politics[138] | October 31, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 49.0% | 42.5% | 8.5% | Cornyn +6.5 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
MJ Hegar (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Swayable[139] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 1,042 (LV) | ± 4% | 57% | 44% | – | – |
Data For Progress[140] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 926 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 47% | 3%[p] | – |
Emerson College[141] | October 29–31, 2020 | 763 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51%[l] | 47% | 2%[q] | – |
Morning Consult[142] | October 22–31, 2020 | 3,267 (LV) | ± 2% | 47% | 43% | – | – |
Gravis Marketing[143] | October 27–28, 2020 | 670 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 43% | – | 8% |
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[144] | October 27–28, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48%[r] | 42% | 2% | 8% |
46%[s] | 44% | 2% | 8% | ||||
49%[t] | 41% | 2% | 8% | ||||
Swayable[145] | October 23–26, 2020 | 492 (LV) | ± 6% | 52% | 48% | – | – |
YouGov/UMass Lowell[146] | October 20–26, 2020 | 873 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 44% | 2%[u] | 5% |
Data for Progress (D)[147] | October 22–25, 2020 | 1,018 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 46% | 2%[v] | 3% |
Siena College/NYT Upshot[148] | October 20–25, 2020 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 38% | 6%[w] | 8%[x] |
Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research[149] |
October 17–25, 2020 | 758 (RV) | ± 3.56% | 45% | 40% | 7%[y] | 8% |
Citizen Data[150] | October 17–20, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3% | 41% | 41% | 4% | 15% |
YouGov/University of Houston[151] | October 13–20, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 42% | 4%[z] | 6% |
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News[152] | October 13–20, 2020 | 925 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 34% | 5%[aa] | 18% |
Morning Consult[142] | October 11–20, 2020 | 3,347 (LV) | ± 1.7% | 46% | 41% | – | – |
Cygnal[153] | October 18–19, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 49% | 41% | 4%[z] | 7% |
Quinnipiac University[154] | October 16–19, 2020 | 1,145 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 43% | 1%[ab] | 7% |
Data for Progress (D)[155] | October 15–18, 2020 | 933 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44%[l] | 41% | 3%[ac] | 12% |
Public Policy Polling[156] | October 14–15, 2020 | 712 (V) | – | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
Morning Consult[157][5] | October 2–11, 2020 | 3,455 (LV) | ± 1.7% | 47%[ad] | 38% | – | 12% |
Morning Consult[158] | September 29 – October 8, 2020 | ~2,700 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47%[ae] | 38% | – | – |
Morning Consult[158] | September 21–30, 2020 | ~2,700 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 39% | – | – |
Civiqs/Daily Kos[159] | October 3–6, 2020 | 895 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 46% | 3%[af] | 4% |
Data For Progress (D)[160] | September 30 – October 5, 2020 | 1,949 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 45% | 42% | 3%[ag] | 11% |
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune[161] | September 25 – October 4, 2020 | 908 (LV) | ± 3.25% | 50% | 42% | 5%[ah] | – |
YouGov/UMass Lowell[162] | September 18–25, 2020 | 882 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 40% | 1%[ai] | 9% |
Siena College/NYT Upshot[163] | September 16–22, 2020 | 653 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 37% | 6%[aj] | 14%[x] |
Data For Progress[164][E] | September 15–22, 2020 | 726 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 38% | – | 22% |
Quinnipiac University[165] | September 17–21, 2020 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 42% | – | 7% |
Morning Consult[166] | September 11–20, 2020 | 2,616 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 45%[ad] | 39% | – | – |
YouGov/CBS[167] | September 15–18, 2020 | 1,129 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 41% | 3%[ak] | 10% |
Morning Consult[168] | September 8–17, 2020 | 2,555 (LV)[c] | ± (2% – 4%) | 45%[ad] | 38% | – | – |
Morning Consult[158] | September 2–11, 2020 | ~2,700 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 38% | – | – |
Public Policy Polling (D)[169][F] | September 1–2, 2020 | 743 (V) | – | 44% | 40% | – | 15% |
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News[170] | August 28 – September 2, 2020 | 897 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 39% | 28% | 5%[al] | 28% |
1,141 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 34% | 24% | 6%[am] | 36% | ||
Morning Consult[158] | August 23 – September 1, 2020 | ~2,700 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 37% | – | – |
Tyson Group[171][G] | August 20–25, 2020 | 906 (LV) | ± 3% | 44% | 42% | – | 11% |
Data for Progress (D)[172][H] | August 20–25, 2020 | 2,295 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 40% | – | 15% |
Morning Consult[158] | August 13–22, 2020 | ~2,700 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 44% | 39% | – | – |
YouGov/Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation/Rice University's Baker Institute[173] | August 4–13, 2020 | 892 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 37% | 5%[an] | 8% |
Morning Consult[158] | August 3–12, 2020 | ~2,700 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 44% | 38% | – | – |
Morning Consult[174] | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 2,576 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 44%[ad] | 38% | 4%[ao] | 14% |
Morning Consult[158] | July 23 – August 1, 2020 | ~2,700 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 44% | 38% | – | – |
Global Strategy Group (D)[175][I] | July 25–29, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 43% | – | 13% |
Quinnipiac University[176] | July 16–20, 2020 | 880 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 38% | 3%[ap] | 13% |
Morning Consult[158] | July 13–22, 2020 | ~2,700 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 40% | – | – |
Spry Strategies (R)[177][J] | July 16–20, 2020 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 37% | 14%[aq] | 2% |
YouGov/CBS[178] | July 7–10, 2020 | 1,179 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 36% | 5%[ar] | 15% |
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[92] | June 29 – July 7, 2020 | 1,677 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 42% | 29% | 5% | 22% |
Public Policy Polling[179] | June 24–25, 2020 | 729 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 35% | – | 23% |
FOX News[180] | June 20–23, 2020 | 1,001 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 36% | 6%[as] | 12% |
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[93] | April 18–27, 2020 | 1,183 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 37% | 24% | 6% | 34% |
NBC News/Marist[78] | February 23–27, 2020 | 2,409 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 41% | 1% | 10% |
Beacon Research (D)[84] | November 9–21, 2019 | 601 (RV) | – | 44% | 30% | – | 26% |
Emerson College[181] | April 25–28, 2019 | 799 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 29% | 12% | 16%[at] | 44% |
with Royce West
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Royce West (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CBS News/YouGov[182] | July 7–10, 2020 | 1,182 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 37% | 4%[au] | 15% |
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[92] | June 29 – July 7, 2020 | 1,677 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 43% | 28% | 6% | 23% |
FOX News[180] | June 20–23, 2020 | 1,001 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 37% | 6%[as] | 11% |
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[93] | April 18–27, 2020 | 1,183 (RV) | ± 2.85% | 35% | 24% | 7% | 34% |
Beacon Research (D)[84] | November 9–21, 2019 | 601 (RV) | – | 45% | 33% | – | 22% |
with Chris Bell
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Chris Bell (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Beacon Research (D)[84] | November 9–21, 2019 | 601 (RV) | – | 45% | 30% | – | 25% |
with Sema Hernandez
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Sema Hernandez (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Beacon Research (D)[84] | November 9–21, 2019 | 601 (RV) | – | 45% | 29% | – | 26% |
with Beto O'Rourke
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Beacon Research (D)[84] | November 9–21, 2019 | 601 (RV) | – | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
Quinnipiac University[183] | February 20–25, 2019 | 1,222 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 46% | 1% | 6% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[184][C] | February 13–14, 2019 | 743 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 45% | – | 8% |
Atlantic Media & Research (R)[185][K] | January 5–11, 2019 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 37% | – | – |
with generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Generic Democrat (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Univision/UH[186] | February 21–26, 2020 | 1,004 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 41% | – | 16% |
Data for Progress[18] | January 16–21, 2020 | 1,486 (LV) | – | 50% | 42% | 2%[av] | 7% |
Beacon Research (D)[84] | November 9–21, 2019 | 601 (RV) | – | 46% | 44% | – | 10% |
Univision/UH[187] | August 1 – September 6, 2019 | 1,004 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 41% | 40% | – | 19% |
with generic Opponent
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Generic Opponent |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Quinnipiac[188] | September 4–9, 2019 | 1,410 (RV) | ± 3.1% | – | 23% | 35%[aw] | 43%[ax] |
with generic Republican and generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican (R) |
Generic Democrat (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cygnal[153] | October 18–19, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 50% | 43% | 7% |
Data For Progress[164][L] | September 15–22, 2020 | 726 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 41% | 13% |
Public Policy Polling[189] | June 18–19, 2020 | 907 (V) | ± 3% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | John Cornyn (incumbent) | 5,962,983 | 53.51% | −8.05% | |
Democratic | MJ Hegar | 4,888,764 | 43.87% | +9.51% | |
Libertarian | Kerry McKennon | 209,722 | 1.88% | −1.00% | |
Green | David Collins | 81,893 | 0.73% | −0.45% | |
Independent | Ricardo Turullols-Bonilla (write-in) | 678 | 0.01% | N/A | |
Total votes | 11,144,040 | 100.0% | |||
Republican hold |
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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
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Cornyn won 24 out of 36 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[191]
Partisan clients
Additional candidates and voter samples
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Both parties are waging legal battles around the country over who gets to vote and how
Official campaign websites