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2020 United States presidential election in Rhode Island

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Rhode Island
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout67.6% Increase
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 4 0
Popular vote 307,486 199,922
Percentage 59.39% 38.61%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

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The 2020 United States presidential election in Rhode Island was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Rhode Island voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Rhode Island has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Rhode Island became one of three states where Biden won every county during the election, the other two being Massachusetts and Hawaii.

Rhode Island voted 17% more Democratic than the national average.

Primary elections

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The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 23, they were moved to June 2 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[3]

Republican primary

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Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and received all of the state's 19 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[4]

Democratic primary

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This section is an excerpt from 2020 Rhode Island Democratic presidential primary § Results.[edit]
2020 Rhode Island Democratic presidential primary[5]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[6]
Joe Biden 79,728 76.67 25
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) 15,525 14.93 1
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 4,479 4.31
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 802 0.77
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 651 0.63
Write-in votes 936 0.90
Uncommitted 1,861 1.79
Total 103,982 100% 26

General election

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Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[7] Safe D September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[8] Safe D September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Safe D July 14, 2020
Politico[10] Safe D September 8, 2020
RCP[11] Safe D August 3, 2020
Niskanen[12] Likely D July 26, 2020
CNN[13] Safe D August 3, 2020
The Economist[14] Safe D September 2, 2020
CBS News[15] Likely D August 16, 2020
270towin[16] Safe D August 2, 2020
ABC News[17] Safe D July 31, 2020
NPR[18] Likely D August 3, 2020
NBC News[19] Likely D August 6, 2020
538[20] Safe D September 9, 2020

Polling

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Graphical summary

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Aggregate polls

[edit]
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[a] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight[21] until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 62.9% 32.4% 4.7% Biden +30.6

Polls

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[22] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 566 (LV) ± 5.5% 36%[c] 62% - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[22] Oct 1–28, 2020 910 (LV) – 32% 67% - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[22] Sep 1–30, 2020 351 (LV) – 37% 62% - – 0%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[22] Aug 1–31, 2020 208 (LV) – 41% 57% - – 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[22] Jul 1–31, 2020 253 (LV) – 39% 60% - – 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[22] Jun 8–30, 2020 176 (LV) – 40% 60% - – 1%

Results

[edit]
2020 United States presidential election in Rhode Island[23]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		307,486 59.39% +4.98%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		199,922 38.61% −0.29%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		5,053 0.98% −2.20%
Alliance Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson 		923 0.18% +0.04%
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman 		847 0.16% N/A
American Solidarity Brian Carroll
Amar Patel 		767 0.15% N/A
Write-in 2,759 0.53% -1.50%
Total votes 517,757 100.00% N/A

By county

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County Joe Biden
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Bristol 18,050 63.52% 9,745 34.30% 620 2.18% 8,305 29.22% 28,415
Kent 49,113 52.76% 42,001 45.12% 1,979 2.12% 7,112 7.64% 93,093
Newport 29,486 63.89% 15,722 34.07% 940 2.04% 13,764 29.82% 46,148
Providence 165,012 60.52% 102,551 37.61% 5,104 1.87% 62,461 22.91% 272,667
Washington 44,549 58.57% 29,818 39.20% 1,693 2.23% 14,731 19.37% 76,060
Totals 306,210 59.39% 199,922 38.61% 10,349 2.00% 107,564 20.78% 517,757

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By municipality

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Municipality Joe Biden

Democratic

Donald Trump

Republican

Jo Jorgensen

Libertarian

Other Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # %
Barrington 7,713 71.2% 2,889 26.7% 113 1.0% 117 1.0% 4,824 44.5% 10,832
Bristol 6,813 58.4% 4,595 39.4% 139 1.2% 110 0.9% 2,218 19.0% 11,657
Burrillville 3,434 40.2% 4,906 57.5% 126 1.5% 72 0.9% -1,472 -17.3% 8,538
Central Falls 3,073 71.9% 1,113 26.1% 25 0.6% 61 1.4% 1,960 45.8% 4,272
Charlestown 2,909 55.7% 2,198 42.1% 64 1.2% 49 1.0% 711 13.6% 5,220
Coventry 9,123 45.6% 10,461 52.3% 232 1.2% 188 0.9% -1,338 -6.7% 20,004
Cranston 23,039 56.1% 17,313 42.2% 311 0.8% 390 1.0% 5,726 13.9% 41,053
Cumberland 10,869 55.2% 8,418 42.8% 206 1.0% 185 0.9% 2,451 12.4% 19,678
East Greenwich 5,218 60.3% 3,227 37.3% 104 1.2% 98 1.1% 1,991 23.0% 8,647
East Providence 14,735 63.6% 7,930 34.3% 204 0.9% 284 1.3% 6,805 29.3% 23,153
Exeter 1,974 48.4% 2,009 49.2% 55 1.3% 44 1.1% -35 -0.8% 4,082
Foster 1,224 42.7% 1,582 55.2% 34 1.2% 25 0.8% -358 -12.5% 2,865
Glocester 2,638 43.2% 3,351 54.8% 62 1.0% 62 1.0% -713 -11.6% 6,113
Hopkinton 2,298 47.4% 2,423 50.0% 74 1.5% 51 1.0% -125 -2.6% 4,846
Jamestown 2,795 68.4% 1,212 29.7% 44 1.1% 33 0.8% 1,583 38.7% 4,084
Johnston 6,838 44.8% 8,222 53.9% 88 0.6% 115 0.8% -1,384 -9.1% 15,263
Lincoln 6,633 52.3% 5,779 45.6% 130 1.0% 129 1.0% 854 6.7% 12,671
Little Compton 1,524 60.1% 951 37.5% 28 1.1% 32 1.2% 573 22.6% 2,535
Middletown 5,529 64.2% 2,885 33.5% 115 1.3% 79 0.9% 2,644 30.7% 8,608
Narragansett 5,333 59.1% 3,551 39.3% 56 0.6% 90 1.1% 1,782 19.8% 9,030
New Shoreham 748 78.3% 195 20.4% 4 0.4% 8 0.8% 553 57.9% 955
Newport 7,866 73.4% 2,662 24.9% 85 0.8% 99 0.9% 5,204 48.5% 10,712
North Kingstown 10,534 59.9% 6,633 37.7% 203 1.2% 207 1.2% 3,901 22.2% 17,577
North Providence 9,438 56.0% 7,129 42.3% 145 0.9% 139 0.8% 2,309 13.7% 16,851
North Smithfield 3,507 48.7% 3,550 49.3% 85 1.2% 64 0.9% -43 -0.6% 7,206
Pawtucket 18,053 70.0% 7,257 28.1% 188 0.7% 290 1.2% 10,796 41.9% 25,788
Portsmouth 6,649 60.9% 3,995 36.6% 148 1.4% 125 1.1% 2,654 24.3% 10,917
Providence 45,941 80.4% 10,186 17.8% 346 0.6% 694 1.2% 35,755 62.6% 57,167
Richmond 2,346 48.8% 2,343 48.7% 66 1.4% 53 1.1% 3 0.1% 4,808
Scituate 2,735 40.9% 3,806 57.0% 69 1.0% 73 1.1% -1,071 -16.1% 6,683
Smithfield 5,566 48.3% 5,744 49.8% 118 1.0% 100 0.9% -178 -1.5% 11,528
South Kingstown 11,254 67.4% 5,003 30.0% 212 1.3% 219 1.3% 6,251 37.4% 16,688
Tiverton 5,123 55.1% 4,017 43.2% 84 0.9% 68 0.7% 1,106 11.9% 9,292
Warren 3,524 59.5% 2,261 38.2% 74 1.2% 67 1.1% 1,263 21.3% 5,926
Warwick 25,845 55.7% 19,578 42.2% 545 1.2% 473 1.0% 6,267 13.5% 46,441
West Greenwich 1,693 42.3% 2,242 56.0% 41 1.0% 24 0.6% -549 -13.7% 4,000
West Warwick 7,234 51.7% 6,493 46.4% 143 1.0% 131 0.9% 741 5.3% 14,001
Westerly 7,153 55.6% 5,463 42.5% 127 1.0% 111 0.8% 1,690 13.1% 12,854
Woonsocket 7,289 52.7% 6,265 45.3% 154 1.1% 130 0.9% 1,024 7.4% 13,838
Totals 307,486 59.4% 199,922 38.6% 5,053 1.0% 5,296 1.0% 107,564 20.8% 517,757

By congressional district

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Biden won both congressional districts.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 34.6% 63.9% David Cicilline
2nd 42.5% 56% James Langevin

Analysis

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Biden flipped the reliably Democratic Kent County back into the Democratic column, after Trump narrowly flipped it in 2016. Of the fourteen towns that voted for Trump in 2016, Biden flipped back three: Lincoln, Richmond, and West Warwick. Overall, Biden won Rhode Island by 20.8 points, improving on Clinton's 15.5 point win. Rhode Island is the only state in which neither Biden nor Trump broke the all-time Democrat or all-time Republican record for most votes earned in a general election (Lyndon B. Johnson and Dwight D. Eisenhower).

Biden's best towns were Rhode Island's wealthiest (such as Barrington, Jamestown, and East Greenwich) and poorest (such as heavily Latino Central Falls). Trump performed best with middle-income voters. This strength allowed Trump to hold formerly Democratic towns like Johnston, which is largely Catholic and middle-class.[24] According to a post-election voter survey conducted by the Associated Press, Trump carried Catholic voters, 51% to 49%.[25]

Biden became the first Democrat since 1912 to win without the towns of Burrillville and North Smithfield, the first since 1916 to win without Johnston and Smithfield, and the first since 1936 to win without Coventry. Biden flipped the municipalities of Lincoln, Richmond, and West Warwick.

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size

References

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  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Rhode Island is the latest state to postpone its 2020 primary as coronavirus outbreak spreads". CNBC. March 23, 2020.
  4. ^ "Rhode Island Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  5. ^ "2020 Presidential Preference Primary". State of Rhode Island Board of Elections. July 3, 2020. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
  6. ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Rhode Island Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 8, 2020.
  7. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  8. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  9. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  10. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  11. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  12. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  13. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  14. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  15. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  16. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  17. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  18. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  19. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  20. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  21. ^ Best, Ryan; Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil; Wiederkehr, Anna (June 28, 2018). "Rhode Island : President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight.
  22. ^ a b c d e f "Candidate preference". www.tableau.com.
  23. ^ "2020 General Election Statewide summary". State of Rhode Island Board of Elections. Retrieved November 30, 2020.
  24. ^ Patinkin, Mark. "Patinkin: Why Democratic Johnston voted for Trump, and probably will again". The Providence Journal. Retrieved November 2, 2022.
  25. ^ "Rhode Island Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 2, 2022.
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