 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
.jpg)
.jpg)
| Elections in Nebraska |
|---|
 |
 Government |
The 2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Nebraska voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. Nebraska has five electoral votes.
Nebraska is one of two states — the other being Maine — that allocates their electoral votes separately by congressional district in addition to two electoral votes going to the statewide winner. The 2nd congressional district, which contains Omaha and some of its suburbs, has been competitive since 2008, when Obama narrowly won the district, marking it the first time in 44 years that a Democrat won any of the state's electoral votes. In recent years, the district has leaned Democratic. In 2020, the district flipped back to the Democratic column, backing Joe Biden by 5.9%, despite the state voting Republican by a landslide margin.
Trump improved his margin statewide but lost the 2nd district again,[1] as Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris carried it by 4.6%. Redistricting between the 2020 and 2024 elections exchanged parts of more liberal areas near Douglas County for more areas of the more conservative Sarpy County.[2][3] Tim Walz, the running mate of Kamala Harris and governor of Minnesota, was born and raised in Nebraska.[4]
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The Nebraska Democratic primary was held on May 14, 2024. President Biden won twenty-eight delegates. Congressman Dean Phillips won one delegate by receiving the most votes of any candidate in Logan County, with 55.6% of the vote.[5]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 84,677 | 90.2% | 28 | 28 | |
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 9,199 | 9.8% | 1 | ||
| Total: | 93,876 | 100.0% | 29 | 5 | 34 |
Republican primary
[edit]The Nebraska Republican primary was held on May 14, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 167,968 | 79.3% | 36 | ||
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 38,246 | 18.1% | |||
| Perry Johnson (withdrawn) | 3,902 | 1.8% | |||
| Write-in votes[8] | 1,671 | 0.8% | |||
| Total: | 211,787 | 100.0% | 36 | 36 | |
Libertarian primary
[edit]
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- >90%
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 60–70%
- >90%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 30–40%
- 50–60%
- >90%
- 40–50%
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
The Nebraska Libertarian primary was held on May 14, 2024. Six candidates were on the ballot.[9]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Chase Oliver | 309 | 27.6% |
| Charles Ballay | 237 | 21.2% |
| Jacob Hornberger | 204 | 18.2% |
| Lars Mapstead | 180 | 16.1% |
| Michael Rectenwald | 120 | 10.7% |
| Mike ter Maat | 69 | 6.2% |
| Total: | 1,119 | 100.0% |
| Source:[10] | ||
General election
[edit]Candidates
[edit]The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Nebraska:[11]
- Kamala Harris, Democratic Party
- Donald Trump, Republican Party
- Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party
- Jill Stein, Green Party
- Cornel West, Independent
In addition, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. successfully made it on the ballot, but took his name off of it when he withdrew.
Proposal to change to winner-take-all
[edit]In April 2024, there was a failed push from some Republicans to replace the split Electoral College voting with a winner-takes-all system. The change was prompted by a possible scenario where if Joe Biden carried the blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania but no other swing states, the second district could give Biden the decisive 270th electoral vote.[12] While Republicans control the state legislature, the attempt failed due to internal opposition. Only eight legislators voted to advance the proposal when it was brought forward at the end of the legislative session. Republican Senator Mike McDonnell, who had given the caucus a filibuster-proof majority when he switched his affiliation from Democratic, stated, "I am not voting for cloture on winner-take-all, and I am not supporting winner-take-all."[13]
Governor Jim Pillen said he would call a special session to adopt a winner-take-all system if it were to get the necessary support for passage. As bills in Nebraska normally take effect three months after being signed, it would need to be passed with an emergency clause and the support of two-thirds of 49 senators – meaning all 33 Republicans – to be effective for the election. Maureen Terry, a Democratic leader in Maine, responded to the efforts by signaling that if they were successful, the Maine legislature would also adopt a winner-take-all system to negate any benefit given to Republicans.[14]
After Kamala Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate, a second push to change to a winner-take-all system began in September after Republican nominee Donald Trump and several of his allies spoke to Republican legislators and Pillen about instituting the change. Pillen stated he would call a special session for the change if supporters could give him commitments from the 33 legislators needed to overcome a Democratic filibuster; at the time, three of the 33 Republicans in the legislature, including McDonnell, who was expected to be the last holdout, had not committed to supporting the change.[15][16] Due to restrictions in Maine law, Maine would not have been able to counter such a modification in time for the November election, meaning the change would almost certainly have secured an extra Republican electoral vote.[17] McDonnell stated on September 23 that he would not vote to change the system before the election, preferring that the issue be decided by the state's voters.[18] The following day, Pillen stated he would not call a special session.[19]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking (1st) | Ranking (2nd) | Ranking (3rd) | Ranking (statewide) | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[20] | Solid R | Likely D | Solid R | Solid R | November 1, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] | Likely R | Likely D | Solid R | Safe R | November 4, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[22] | Solid R | Likely D | Solid R | Safe R | August 26, 2024 |
| CNalysis[23] | Solid R | Solid D | Solid R | Solid R | November 4, 2024 |
| CNN[24] | Solid R | Lean D | Solid R | Solid R | October 1, 2024 |
| The Economist[25] | Safe R | Likely D | Solid R | Safe R | October 3, 2024 |
| 538[26] | Solid R | Likely D | Solid R | Solid R | September 13, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[27] | Solid R | Lean D | Solid R | Solid R | August 29, 2024 |
| NBC News[28] | Safe R | Lean D | Safe R | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
| YouGov[29] | Safe R | Tossup | Safe R | Safe R | October 16, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[30] | Solid R | Likely D | Solid R | Solid R | November 1, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Statewide
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[31][A] | October 30–31, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 57% | 39% | 4% |
| Torchlight Strategies (R)[32][B] | October 25–28, 2024 | 605 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 56% | 39% | 5% |
| New York Times/Siena College[33] | October 23−26, 2024 | 1,194 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 55% | 40% | 5% |
| 1,194 (LV) | 55% | 40% | 5% | |||
| Change Research (D)[34][A] | October 18–21, 2024 | 815 (LV) | – | 55% | 41% | 4% |
| Torchlight Strategies (R)[35][B] | October 5–8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 57% | 37% | 6% |
| Change Research (D)[36][A] | October 3–8, 2024 | 895 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 58% | 38% | 4% |
| Impact Research (D)[37][A] | October 1–3, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 58% | 38% | 4% |
| The Bullfinch Group[38][C] | September 27 – October 1, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 42% | 5% |
| 48% | 38% | 14%[b] | ||||
| SurveyUSA[39][A] | September 20–23, 2024 | 558 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 56% | 40% | 5%[c] |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[40][D] | August 26–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 54% | 37% | 9% |
| SurveyUSA[41][E] | August 23–27, 2024 | 1,293 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 37% | 9%[d] |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs.Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Economist/YouGov[42] | October 21–28, 2024 | 1,206 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 55% | 40% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 4%[e] |
| New York Times/Siena College[33] | October 23−26, 2024 | 1,194 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 53% | 38% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 8% |
| 1,194 (LV) | 53% | 39% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 7% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torchlight Strategies (R)[43][B] | July 8–11, 2024 | 698 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 33% | 15%[f] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[44][A] | April 24–25, 2024 | 737 (V) | ± 3.6% | 57% | 34% | 9% |
| John Zogby Strategies[45][F] | April 13–21, 2024 | 307 (LV) | – | 50% | 39% | 11% |
| Change Research (D)[46][G] | November 13–16, 2023 | 1,048 (LV) | – | 53% | 35% | 12% |
| Emerson College[47] | October 1–4, 2023 | 423 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 47% | 31% | 23% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[45][F] | April 13–21, 2024 | 307 (LV) | – | 47% | 39% | 14% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[45][F] | April 13–21, 2024 | 307 (LV) | – | 50% | 38% | 12% |
Nebraska's 1st congressional district
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs.Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Economist/YouGov[42] | October 21–28, 2024 | 408 (LV) | – | 51% | 43% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 3%[e] |
Nebraska's 2nd congressional district
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College[33] | October 23−26, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 54% | 42% | 4% |
| New York Times/Siena College[48] | September 24–26, 2024 | 680 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| 680 (LV) | 52% | 43% | 5% | |||
| SurveyUSA[41][E] | August 23–27, 2024 | 507 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 47% | 42% | 11%[g] |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Economist/YouGov[42] | October 21–28, 2024 | 393 (LV) | – | 52% | 44% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| New York Times/Siena College[33] | October 23−26, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 53% | 41% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| New York Times/Siena College[48] | September 24–26, 2024 | 680 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 41% | – | 2% | 2% | 6% |
| 680 (LV) | 51% | 42% | – | 2% | 1% | 4% | |||
| CNN/SSRS[49] | September 20–25, 2024 | 794 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Chase Oliver vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group (R)[50][H] | August 14–17, 2024 | 656 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 42% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[51][I] | August 10–17, 2024 | 437 (LV) | – | 47% | 42% | 5% | 6% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torchlight Strategies (R)[43][B] | July 8–11, 2024 | 300 (LV) | – | 42% | 42% | 16%[h] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[44][A] | April 24–25, 2024 | – | – | 43% | 46% | 11% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[44][A] | April 24–25, 2024 | – | – | 34% | 37% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Light Intelligence[52][J] | May 17–22, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 37% | 13% | 8% |
Nebraska's 3rd congressional district
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs.Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Economist/YouGov[42] | October 21–28, 2024 | 404 (LV) | – | 70% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 564,816 | 59.32% | +1.10% | ||
| Democratic | 369,995 | 38.86% | −0.31% | ||
| Libertarian | 6,399 | 0.67% | −1.45% | ||
| Legal Marijuana Now | 3,062 | 0.32% | N/A | ||
| Green | 2,887 | 0.30% | N/A | ||
| Write-in | 5,023 | 0.53% | +0.04% | ||
| Total votes | 952,182 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
By county
[edit]| County | Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 10,077 | 69.92% | 4,100 | 28.45% | 235 | 1.63% | 5,977 | 41.47% | 14,412 |
| Antelope | 3,032 | 87.68% | 396 | 11.45% | 30 | 0.87% | 2,636 | 76.23% | 3,458 |
| Arthur | 264 | 93.29% | 17 | 6.01% | 2 | 0.71% | 247 | 87.28% | 283 |
| Banner | 348 | 89.23% | 34 | 8.72% | 8 | 2.05% | 314 | 80.51% | 390 |
| Blaine | 250 | 85.62% | 37 | 12.67% | 5 | 1.71% | 213 | 72.95% | 292 |
| Boone | 2,499 | 82.20% | 496 | 16.32% | 45 | 1.48% | 2,003 | 65.88% | 3,040 |
| Box Butte | 3,827 | 77.52% | 1,043 | 21.13% | 67 | 1.36% | 2,784 | 56.39% | 4,937 |
| Boyd | 938 | 87.17% | 132 | 12.27% | 6 | 0.56% | 806 | 74.90% | 1,076 |
| Brown | 1,428 | 86.65% | 201 | 12.20% | 19 | 1.15% | 1,227 | 74.45% | 1,648 |
| Buffalo | 17,064 | 71.47% | 6,386 | 26.75% | 427 | 1.79% | 10,678 | 44.72% | 23,877 |
| Burt | 2,632 | 71.81% | 983 | 26.82% | 50 | 1.36% | 1,649 | 44.99% | 3,665 |
| Butler | 3,642 | 79.05% | 906 | 19.67% | 59 | 1.28% | 2,736 | 59.38% | 4,607 |
| Cass | 10,685 | 67.50% | 4,824 | 30.47% | 321 | 2.03% | 5,861 | 37.03% | 15,830 |
| Cedar | 4,141 | 83.86% | 702 | 14.22% | 95 | 1.92% | 3,439 | 69.64% | 4,938 |
| Chase | 1,648 | 88.22% | 204 | 10.92% | 16 | 0.86% | 1,444 | 77.30% | 1,868 |
| Cherry | 2,687 | 87.30% | 349 | 11.34% | 42 | 1.36% | 2,338 | 75.96% | 3,078 |
| Cheyenne | 3,692 | 81.11% | 787 | 17.29% | 73 | 1.60% | 2,905 | 63.82% | 4,552 |
| Clay | 2,677 | 80.66% | 577 | 17.38% | 65 | 1.96% | 2,100 | 63.28% | 3,319 |
| Colfax | 2,636 | 74.91% | 845 | 24.01% | 38 | 1.08% | 1,791 | 50.90% | 3,519 |
| Cuming | 3,536 | 79.34% | 867 | 19.45% | 54 | 1.21% | 2,669 | 59.89% | 4,457 |
| Custer | 5,042 | 85.33% | 786 | 13.30% | 81 | 1.37% | 4,256 | 72.03% | 5,909 |
| Dakota | 3,934 | 64.09% | 2,109 | 34.36% | 95 | 1.55% | 1,825 | 29.73% | 6,138 |
| Dawes | 2,812 | 72.31% | 992 | 25.51% | 85 | 2.19% | 1,820 | 46.80% | 3,889 |
| Dawson | 6,312 | 74.07% | 2,101 | 24.65% | 109 | 1.28% | 4,211 | 49.42% | 8,522 |
| Deuel | 843 | 83.14% | 151 | 14.89% | 20 | 1.97% | 692 | 68.25% | 1,014 |
| Dixon | 2,271 | 78.20% | 573 | 19.73% | 60 | 2.07% | 1,698 | 58.47% | 2,904 |
| Dodge | 10,795 | 65.39% | 5,434 | 32.92% | 279 | 1.69% | 5,361 | 32.47% | 16,508 |
| Douglas | 120,919 | 43.95% | 148,733 | 54.06% | 5,493 | 2.00% | -27,814 | -10.11% | 275,145 |
| Dundy | 829 | 89.04% | 96 | 10.31% | 6 | 0.64% | 733 | 78.73% | 931 |
| Fillmore | 2,315 | 76.55% | 662 | 21.89% | 47 | 1.55% | 1,653 | 54.66% | 3,024 |
| Franklin | 1,351 | 84.17% | 236 | 14.70% | 18 | 1.12% | 1,115 | 69.47% | 1,605 |
| Frontier | 1,213 | 85.85% | 185 | 13.09% | 15 | 1.06% | 1,028 | 72.76% | 1,413 |
| Furnas | 2,043 | 84.46% | 358 | 14.80% | 18 | 0.74% | 1,685 | 69.66% | 2,419 |
| Gage | 7,523 | 68.61% | 3,242 | 29.57% | 200 | 1.82% | 4,281 | 39.04% | 10,965 |
| Garden | 949 | 84.73% | 162 | 14.46% | 9 | 0.80% | 787 | 70.27% | 1,120 |
| Garfield | 893 | 87.81% | 116 | 11.41% | 8 | 0.79% | 777 | 76.40% | 1,017 |
| Gosper | 907 | 80.77% | 203 | 18.08% | 13 | 1.16% | 704 | 62.69% | 1,123 |
| Grant | 351 | 95.90% | 15 | 4.10% | 0 | 0.00% | 336 | 91.80% | 366 |
| Greeley | 1,030 | 83.40% | 192 | 15.55% | 13 | 1.05% | 838 | 67.85% | 1,235 |
| Hall | 15,566 | 67.97% | 6,956 | 30.37% | 379 | 1.65% | 8,610 | 37.60% | 22,901 |
| Hamilton | 4,416 | 79.24% | 1,067 | 19.15% | 90 | 1.61% | 3,349 | 60.09% | 5,573 |
| Harlan | 1,506 | 83.43% | 280 | 15.51% | 19 | 1.05% | 1,226 | 67.92% | 1,805 |
| Hayes | 472 | 95.55% | 19 | 3.85% | 3 | 0.61% | 453 | 91.70% | 494 |
| Hitchcock | 1,269 | 88.19% | 152 | 10.56% | 18 | 1.25% | 1,117 | 77.63% | 1,439 |
| Holt | 4,708 | 86.26% | 681 | 12.48% | 69 | 1.26% | 4,027 | 73.78% | 5,458 |
| Hooker | 369 | 86.42% | 55 | 12.88% | 3 | 0.70% | 314 | 73.54% | 427 |
| Howard | 2,868 | 80.43% | 642 | 18.00% | 56 | 1.57% | 2,226 | 62.43% | 3,566 |
| Jefferson | 2,614 | 71.83% | 968 | 26.60% | 57 | 1.57% | 1,646 | 45.23% | 3,639 |
| Johnson | 1,496 | 69.16% | 625 | 28.90% | 42 | 1.94% | 871 | 40.26% | 2,163 |
| Kearney | 2,828 | 78.23% | 736 | 20.36% | 51 | 1.41% | 2,092 | 57.87% | 3,615 |
| Keith | 3,416 | 81.16% | 731 | 17.37% | 62 | 1.47% | 2,685 | 63.79% | 4,209 |
| Keya Paha | 500 | 91.74% | 44 | 8.07% | 1 | 0.18% | 456 | 83.67% | 545 |
| Kimball | 1,424 | 82.69% | 272 | 15.80% | 26 | 1.51% | 1,152 | 66.89% | 1,722 |
| Knox | 3,593 | 80.78% | 786 | 17.67% | 69 | 1.55% | 2,807 | 63.11% | 4,448 |
| Lancaster | 74,215 | 46.75% | 81,012 | 51.04% | 3,507 | 2.21% | -6,797 | -4.29% | 158,734 |
| Lincoln | 12,674 | 76.67% | 3,586 | 21.69% | 270 | 1.63% | 9,088 | 54.98% | 16,530 |
| Logan | 409 | 92.53% | 25 | 5.66% | 8 | 1.81% | 384 | 86.87% | 442 |
| Loup | 354 | 82.71% | 73 | 17.06% | 1 | 0.23% | 281 | 65.65% | 428 |
| Madison | 12,145 | 77.13% | 3,360 | 21.34% | 242 | 1.54% | 8,785 | 55.79% | 15,747 |
| McPherson | 267 | 94.01% | 12 | 4.23% | 5 | 1.76% | 255 | 89.78% | 284 |
| Merrick | 3,551 | 81.30% | 730 | 16.71% | 87 | 1.99% | 2,821 | 64.59% | 4,368 |
| Morrill | 2,026 | 83.37% | 366 | 15.06% | 38 | 1.56% | 1,660 | 68.31% | 2,430 |
| Nance | 1,462 | 79.28% | 352 | 19.09% | 30 | 1.63% | 1,110 | 60.19% | 1,844 |
| Nemaha | 2,443 | 71.04% | 915 | 26.61% | 81 | 2.36% | 1,528 | 44.43% | 3,439 |
| Nuckolls | 1,836 | 81.17% | 399 | 17.64% | 27 | 1.19% | 1,437 | 63.53% | 2,262 |
| Otoe | 5,651 | 68.69% | 2,463 | 29.94% | 113 | 1.37% | 3,188 | 38.75% | 8,227 |
| Pawnee | 1,085 | 78.34% | 284 | 20.51% | 16 | 1.16% | 801 | 57.83% | 1,385 |
| Perkins | 1,224 | 85.47% | 187 | 13.06% | 21 | 1.47% | 1,037 | 72.41% | 1,432 |
| Phelps | 4,158 | 83.39% | 758 | 15.20% | 70 | 1.40% | 3,400 | 68.19% | 4,986 |
| Pierce | 3,420 | 87.47% | 446 | 11.41% | 44 | 1.13% | 2,974 | 76.06% | 3,910 |
| Platte | 12,326 | 78.33% | 3,191 | 20.28% | 219 | 1.39% | 9,135 | 58.05% | 15,736 |
| Polk | 2,296 | 81.16% | 501 | 17.71% | 32 | 1.13% | 1,795 | 63.45% | 2,829 |
| Red Willow | 4,457 | 83.48% | 815 | 15.27% | 67 | 1.25% | 3,642 | 68.21% | 5,339 |
| Richardson | 2,962 | 74.76% | 934 | 23.57% | 66 | 1.67% | 2,028 | 51.19% | 3,962 |
| Rock | 745 | 89.22% | 85 | 10.18% | 5 | 0.60% | 660 | 79.04% | 835 |
| Saline | 3,734 | 65.84% | 1,855 | 32.71% | 82 | 1.45% | 1,879 | 33.13% | 5,671 |
| Sarpy | 55,567 | 54.85% | 43,825 | 43.26% | 1,907 | 1.88% | 11,742 | 11.59% | 101,299 |
| Saunders | 9,854 | 72.34% | 3,558 | 26.12% | 210 | 1.54% | 6,296 | 46.22% | 13,622 |
| Scotts Bluff | 11,033 | 73.09% | 3,856 | 25.54% | 206 | 1.36% | 7,177 | 47.55% | 15,095 |
| Seward | 6,667 | 72.15% | 2,388 | 25.84% | 185 | 2.00% | 4,279 | 46.31% | 9,240 |
| Sheridan | 2,102 | 84.18% | 362 | 14.50% | 33 | 1.32% | 1,740 | 69.68% | 2,497 |
| Sherman | 1,344 | 79.43% | 328 | 19.39% | 20 | 1.18% | 1,016 | 60.04% | 1,692 |
| Sioux | 597 | 87.79% | 77 | 11.32% | 6 | 0.88% | 520 | 76.47% | 680 |
| Stanton | 2,536 | 82.44% | 492 | 15.99% | 48 | 1.56% | 2,044 | 66.45% | 3,076 |
| Thayer | 2,278 | 79.57% | 544 | 19.00% | 41 | 1.43% | 1,734 | 60.57% | 2,863 |
| Thomas | 348 | 88.55% | 44 | 11.20% | 1 | 0.25% | 304 | 77.35% | 393 |
| Thurston | 1,125 | 52.99% | 978 | 46.07% | 20 | 0.94% | 147 | 6.92% | 2,123 |
| Valley | 1,872 | 81.36% | 403 | 17.51% | 26 | 1.13% | 1,469 | 63.85% | 2,301 |
| Washington | 8,855 | 70.24% | 3,538 | 28.06% | 214 | 1.70% | 5,317 | 42.18% | 12,607 |
| Wayne | 3,011 | 73.33% | 1,006 | 24.50% | 89 | 2.17% | 2,005 | 48.83% | 4,106 |
| Webster | 1,449 | 82.10% | 296 | 16.77% | 20 | 1.13% | 1,153 | 65.33% | 1,765 |
| Wheeler | 424 | 87.24% | 57 | 11.73% | 5 | 1.03% | 367 | 75.51% | 486 |
| York | 5,234 | 74.56% | 1,648 | 23.48% | 138 | 1.97% | 3,586 | 51.08% | 7,020 |
| Totals | 564,816 | 59.32% | 369,995 | 38.86% | 17,371 | 1.82% | 194,821 | 20.46% | 952,182 |
By congressional district
[edit]
Trump won two of Nebraska's three congressional districts, while Harris won the second, which elected a Republican.[1]
| District | Trump | Harris | Other | Representative | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| 1st | 177,666 | 55.49% | 136,153 | 42.52% | 6,375 | 1.99% | Mike Flood |
| 2nd | 148,905 | 46.73% | 163,541 | 51.32% | 6,200 | 1.95% | Don Bacon |
| 3rd | 238,245 | 76.03% | 70,301 | 22.44% | 4,796 | 1.53% | Adrian Smith |
Analysis
[edit]A sparsely populated Great Plains state, Nebraska has voted Republican in nearly every presidential election since its statehood, making exceptions only for favorite son William Jennings Bryan; Woodrow Wilson; Franklin D. Roosevelt in his first two terms; and landslide winner Lyndon B. Johnson. Democratic presidential candidates have not been able to come within single digits of carrying the state since Johnson carried the state in his 1964 landslide, and the only Democrat to win more than 40% of the statewide vote since then was Barack Obama, who garnered 41.60% in 2008.
Harris's win in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district marked the first time Democrats carried the district in consecutive elections since Nebraska adopted the district method in 1992, and the first time since 1936 that Democrats won consecutive electoral votes from the state. It was also the first presidential election since 2012 where the district did not back the Electoral College winner, and the first time a Republican won the presidency without carrying the district or sweeping Nebraska’s electoral votes since 1908.
Notably, the 2nd district was the only electoral vote Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2024.[53] Republican Don Bacon won re-election to the House in Nebraska's 2nd district.
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Nebraska
- 2024 Nebraska elections
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "A third party / Independent candidate" with 7%
- ^ "Other" with 3%; "Undecided" with 2%
- ^ "Other" with 4%
- ^ a b "Other" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 11%
- ^ "Other" with 5%
- ^ "Someone else" with 12%
- ^ Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.
- ^ Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.
Partisan clients
- ^ a b c d e f g h Poll sponsored by the campaign of Dan Osborn, an independent candidate for Nebraska's Class 1 Senate seat
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the campaign of U.S. Senator Deb Fischer, who has endorsed Trump
- ^ Poll conducted for The Independent Center
- ^ Poll sponsored by Retire Career Politicians PAC
- ^ a b Poll commissioned by Split Ticket
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by Nebraska Railroaders for Public Safety
- ^ Poll sponsored by Nebraska Examiner
- ^ Poll sponsored by Future Majority
- ^ Poll commissioned by League of American Workers
References
[edit]- ^ a b c "Official Results" (PDF). Nebraska Secretary of State. Retrieved December 3, 2024.
- ^ https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/14/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-2020
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 11, 2024.
- ^ Searcey, Dionne (August 6, 2024). "Walz Grew Up in Rural Nebraska, Where Finding a Date 'Was Kind of a Problem'". The New York Times.
- ^ "Nebraska Statewide and Presidential Primary Democratic Results". USA Today.
- ^ "Nebraska Presidential Primary". AP News. June 17, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
- ^ Evnen, Robert (May 14, 2020). "The Nebraska Board of State Canvassers Official Report" (PDF). Nebraska Secretary of State. Retrieved July 28, 2024.
- ^ "Nebraska Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved May 14, 2024.
- ^ "Statewide Candidate List List as of 3/18/2024 10:41:21 AM" (PDF). Nebraska Secretary of State. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
- ^ "Nebraska Secretary of State – Election Night Results – May 14th, 2024". Nebraska Secretary of State. Retrieved June 22, 2024.
- ^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
- ^ Zeleny, Jeff (September 21, 2024). "Trump presses to change Nebraska election law, in fight for a sole electoral vote | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved September 22, 2024.
- ^ "State Sen. Mike McDonnell now a Republican: Does he support 'winner-take-all'?". KMTV 3 News Now Omaha. April 4, 2024. Retrieved September 21, 2024.
- ^ Marley, Patrick; Dawsey, Josh; Scherer, Michael (September 20, 2024). "Trump ramps up push for Nebraska to change electoral vote allocation". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved September 21, 2024.
- ^ Sanderford, Aaron (September 20, 2024). "Sen. Mike McDonnell says he's a no on winner-take-all 'as of today' • Nebraska Examiner". Nebraska Examiner. Retrieved September 21, 2024.
- ^ "How One Man's Vote in Nebraska Could Change the Presidential Election". The New York Times. September 20, 2024.
- ^ "Maine Democrats have likely run out of time to change Electoral College laws if Nebraska GOP acts". NBC News. September 20, 2024.
- ^ Sanderford, Aaron (September 23, 2024). "State Sen. Mike McDonnell deflates GOP hopes for Nebraska winner-take-all in 2024 • Nebraska Examiner". Nebraska Examiner. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
- ^ "In a blow to Trump, Nebraska governor won't call a special session to change state's electoral votes". NBC News. September 24, 2024. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". Cook Political Report.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". The Hill.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". CNalysis.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN.
- ^ "Trump v Harris: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Election Polls". YouGov.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
- ^ App, Betsy (October 31, 2024). "Nebraska U.S. Senate Poll Results" (PDF). Change Research.
- ^ Wegley, Andrew (November 1, 2024). "Exclusive: Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer leads Dan Osborn by 7.5 points in new poll". Lincoln Journal Star.
- ^ a b c d Weisman, Jonathan; Baker, Camille (October 28, 2024). "Republicans Cling to Slim Leads in Nebraska and Texas Senate Races". The New York Times.
- ^ Grim, Ryan (October 23, 2024). "New poll has an independent populist upending the Senate with a Nebraska upset". Drop Site.
- ^ Desiderio, Andrew; Zanona, Melanie (October 11, 2024). "Fischer rebounds after sluggish start triggered GOP panic". Punchbowl News.
- ^ Bade, Rachael; Daniels, Eugene (October 10, 2024). "Playbook: The battle for the bros". Politico.
- ^ "Dan Osborn Leading Deb Fischer Roughly One Month from Election Day". Impact Research. October 7, 2024.
- ^ "Toplines: Independent Center Oct 2024 Online Survey of Likely Voters in Nebraska" (PDF). Independent Center. October 2, 2024. Retrieved October 2, 2024.
- ^ "Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #27302". SurveyUSA. September 24, 2024. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
- ^ Pollock, Jefrey (September 19, 2024). "NE US SEN — More positive polling for Osborn, Fischer goes hard negative" (PDF). FiveThirtyEight.
- ^ a b Jain, Lakshya; McCall, Max; Lavelle, Harrison; Sit, Leon (August 31, 2024). "We Polled Nebraska (And Its Second District). Here's What We Found". Split Ticket.
- ^ a b c d "Economist Poll – October 21-28, 2024" (PDF). The Economist. October 30, 2024.
- ^ a b Sanderford, Aaron (July 19, 2024). "Fischer, Trump lead statewide in Fischer's new Nebraska poll". Nebraska Examiner.
- ^ a b c Patterson, Katherine (May 6, 2024). "Osborn Trails Senator Fischer by Just 4 Points in Nebraska's Senate Race; Fischer Underwater in Favorability" (PDF). FiveThirtyEight.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ "Nebraska Survey Toplines - November 2023" (PDF). FiveThirtyEight. December 6, 2023.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 13, 2023). "Nebraska Poll: Trump Maintains Lead but Biden Cuts into 2020 Vote". Emerson Polling.
- ^ a b Epstein, Reid J.; Igielnik, Ruth; Baker, Camille (September 28, 2024). "Harris and Trump Are Neck and Neck in Michigan and Wisconsin, Polls Find". The New York Times.
- ^ Edwards-Levy, Ariel (September 27, 2024). "CNN Poll: Harris and Trump are tied in North Carolina, while vice president leads in Nebraska's 2nd District". CNN.
- ^ Sanderford, Aaron (August 20, 2024). "Harris leads Trump in new Nebraska 2nd District poll". Nebraska Examiner.
- ^ Riddle, Mark (August 21, 2024). "Governing Landscape and Messaging" (PDF). Future Majority.
- ^ "League of American Workers NE-02 Poll of Likely Voters". League of American Workers. May 23, 2024. Archived from the original on May 29, 2024.
- ^ https://www.270towin.com/states/Nebraska
