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2024 San Francisco mayoral election

2024 San Francisco mayoral election

← 2019 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Candidate Daniel Lurie London Breed
First round 102,720
26.33%
95,117
24.38%
Maximum round 182,364
55.02%
149,113
44.98%

 
Candidate Aaron Peskin Mark Farrell
First round 89,215
22.86%
72,115
18.48%
Maximum round Eliminated Eliminated

First round results by precinct

Mayor before election

London Breed
Democratic

Elected mayor

Daniel Lurie
Democratic

The 2024 San Francisco mayoral election took place on November 5, 2024, to elect the mayor of San Francisco, California. It was originally scheduled for November 7, 2023, but following the passage of Proposition H in 2022, mayoral elections were rescheduled to coincide with presidential elections. The election used ranked-choice voting.

Incumbent mayor London Breed ran for re-election to a second term in office: she was considered vulnerable, as polls had consistently shown her with low approval ratings. Breed had also faced criticism for her handling of important issues in the city, including homelessness, crime, and drug addiction.[1]

On November 7, Breed conceded the race to Daniel Lurie.[2]

Background

[edit]

A survey was released by the San Francisco Controller in 2023 which reported the lowest safety rating since 1996, and the lowest government rating since 2002.[3] Polling in June reported that 64% of people did not believe London Breed should be reelected and she had a 66% disapproval rating.[4][5]

Candidates

[edit]

Debates and forums

[edit]
2024 San Francisco mayoral election debates and forums
Date Host Moderator(s) Link Participants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   W  Withdrawn
London Breed Mark Farrell Daniel Lurie Aaron Peskin Ahsha Safaí
May 20, 2024
(cancelled)[16]
TogetherSF Action Karen Breslau
Kim-Mai Cutler
W A W W A
June 12, 2024 City Arts & Lectures Heather Knight
Manny Yekutiel
Video P P P P P
June 17, 2024 San Francisco
Democratic Party
Terisa Estacio P P P P P
July 8, 2024 Stop Crime Action
Stop Crime SF
ConnectedSF
Frank Noto
Amber Lee
P P P A P
Sept. 5, 2024 District 8
Neighborhood Groups
Joe Fitzgerald Rodriguez Video A P P P P
Sept. 11, 2024 KPIX
San Francisco Examiner
KCBS
Ryan Yamamoto
Doug Sovereign
Adam Shanks
A P P P P
Sept. 19, 2024 KQED
San Francisco Chronicle
Joe Garofoli
Marisa Lagos
Scott Shafer
Video P P P P P
Sept. 26, 2024 Asian Pacific Islander Council Richard Lui
Gia Vang
P P P P P
Sept. 28, 2024 San Francisco Latino Parity
and Equity Coalition
Chris Iglesias
Ani Rivera
P A P P P
Sept. 30, 2024 League of Women Voters
of San Francisco
Alison Goh
Darcy Brown
Video A P P P P

Endorsements

[edit]
London Breed

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Political parties

Organizations

Labor unions

Editorial boards

Mark Farrell

Local officials

Organizations

  • Edwin M. Lee Asian Pacific Democratic Club[28]
  • GrowSF[28]
  • San Francisco Chinese American Democratic Club[43]
  • TogetherSF Action[44]

Labor unions

Daniel Lurie

Local officials

Organizations

Editorial boards

Aaron Peskin

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Political parties

Organizations

Labor unions

Ahsha Safaí

Labor unions

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
RCV
round
London
Breed
Mark
Farrell
Daniel
Lurie
Aaron
Peskin
Ahsha
Safaí
Other Undecided
David Binder Research[55][A] October 26–27, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4% 23% 17% 26% 18% 4% 5% 7%
Public Policy Polling[56][B] October 18–19, 2024 621 (LV) ± 4% 18% 15% 25% 25% 6% 11%
Sextant Strategies & Research[57][C] October 15–16, 2024 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 1 27% 16% 27% 21% 6% 3%
2 27% 17% 27% 22% 7%
3 30% 18% 28% 24%
4 33% 41% 26%
5 44% 56%
Lieberman Data & Insights, Inc.[58][D] October 9–19, 2024 950 (LV) ± 3.2% 1 25% 21% 21% 20% 3% 4% 6%
David Binder Research[59][A] September 28 – October 1, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.4% 1 23% 19% 22% 16% 4% 6% 10%
2 27% 23% 27% 18% 5%
3 29% 24% 28% 20%
4 37% 27% 36%
5 47% 53%
FM3 Research (D)[60][E] September 21–26, 2024 415 (RV) ± 4.9% 1 38% 19% 21% 18% 4% 11%
2 39% 19% 21% 21%
3 43% 34% 23%
4 51% 49%
David Binder Research[61][A] September 3–8, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 1 26% 28% 26% 14% 6%
2 27% 29% 28% 16%
3 33% 33% 34%
4 43% 57%
KRON4/Emerson College[62] September 5–7, 2024 750 (LV) ± 3.5% 1 20.3% 20.6% 17.5% 8.5% 1.6% 26.5%
FM3 Research (D)[63][A] August 21–28, 2024 708 (LV) ± 4.0% 1 36% 23% 22% 14% 5%
2 38% 23% 23% 15%
3 44% 27% 28%
4 52% 48%
Probolsky Research[64][F] July 30–August 7, 2024 300 (RV) ± 5.8% 1 28% 24% 19% 22% 3%
2 28% 24% 19% 22% 3%
3 29% 24% 20% 22% 3%
4 30% 25% 20% 22% 3%
5 30% 26% 21% 23%
6 36% 36% 28%
7 51% 49%
Sextant Strategies & Research[65][C] July 31 – August 5, 2024 804 (LV) ± 3.5% 28% 20% 17% 12% 5% 18%
FM3 Research (D)[66][E] July 9–18, 2024 1066 (LV) ± 3.1% BA[b] 24% 21% 16% 14% 7% 18%
1 30% 26% 20% 16% 8%
2 33% 27% 21% 19%
3 41% 32% 26%
4 51% 49%
Impact Research (D)[67][G] June 1–6, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.5% BA[b] 21% 23% 20% 17% 4% 5% 11%
5 43% 57%
FM3 Research (D)[68][H] May 10–16, 2024 866 (LV) ± 3.5% BA[b] 19% 20% 17% 12% 4% 1% 28%
5 45% 55%
FM3 Research (D)[69][E] April 29–May 5, 2024 412 (RV) ± 4.9% BA[b] 21% 16% 16% 12% 7% 28%
1 29% 23% 23% 16% 9%
2 30% 26% 24% 20%
3 39% 31% 30%
4 51% 49%
Probolsky Research[70][F] June 16–20, 2023 300 (RV) ± 5.8% 26% 29% 45%
Sextant Strategies & Research[71][C] February 14–18, 2024 812 (LV) ± 3.4% 18% 20% 16% 8% 38%
David Binder Research (D)[72][A] January 15–20, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 26% 15% 21% 10% 28%

Results

[edit]

Results Summary

[edit]

The following table shows a summary of the instant runoff for the election. The table shows the results for the first round and the maximum round.

Municipal elections in California are officially non-partisan, though most candidates in San Francisco receive funding and support from various political parties.

2024 San Francisco Mayoral Election[73]
Candidate Round 1 Round 14 (Last Round)
Votes % Votes %
Daniel Lurie 102,720 26.33% 182,364 55.02%
London Breed (incumbent) 95,117 24.38% 149,113 44.98%
Aaron Peskin 89,215 22.86% Eliminated in Round 13
Mark Farrell 72,115 18.48% Eliminated in Round 12
Ahsha Safaí 11,425 2.93% Eliminated in Round 11
Ellen Lee Zhou 8,665 2.22% Eliminated in Round 10
Dylan Hirsch-Shell 2,897 0.74% Eliminated in Round 9
Keith Freedman 2,079 0.53% Eliminated in Round 8
Nelson Mei 1,791 0.46% Eliminated in Round 7
Shahram Shariati 1,613 0.41% Eliminated in Round 6
Henry Flynn 1,319 0.34% Eliminated in Round 5
Paul Ybarra Robertson 812 0.21% Eliminated in Round 4
Jon Soderstrom 412 0.11% Eliminated in Round 3
Marc Roth 3 0.00% Eliminated in Round 2
Michael Lin 1 0.00% Eliminated in Round 1
Total Active Votes 390,184 100% 331,477 100%
Source: San Francisco Department of Elections

Voting Results by Round

[edit]

The following table shows how votes were counted in a series of rounds of instant runoffs. Each voter could mark which candidates were the voter's first, second, and third choice. Each voter had one vote but could rank three candidates for which they wanted their vote cast. In each round, the vote is counted for the most preferred candidate that has not yet been eliminated. Then, one or more candidates with the fewest votes are eliminated. Votes that counted for an eliminated candidate are transferred to the voter's next most preferred candidate that has not yet been eliminated.

Continuing votes are votes that counted for a candidate in that round. Exhausted ballots represent votes that could not be transferred because a less preferred candidate was not marked on the ballot. Overvotes are votes that could not be counted for a candidate because more than one candidate was marked for a choice that was ready to be counted. Undervotes are ballots that were left blank or that only marked a choice for a write-in candidate that had not qualified as a write-in candidate.

2024 San Francisco Mayoral Election Ranked-Choice-Voting Round-by-Round Results[74]
Candidate Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Round 8 Round 9 Round 10 Round 11 Round 12 Round 13 Round 14
Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes %
Daniel Lurie 102,720 26.33% +1 102,721 26.33% +1 102,722 26.33% +29 102,751 26.34% +62 102,813 26.36% +138 102,951 26.41% +163 103,114 26.46% +148 103,262 26.52% +439 103,701 26.66% +754 104,455 26.89% +2,291 106,746 27.65% +2,616 109,362 28.46% +41,233 150,595 40.84% +31,769 182,364 55.02%
London Breed (incumbent) 95,117 24.38% 0 95,117 24.38% 0 95,117 24.38% +21 95,138 24.39% +64 95,202 24.41% +91 95,293 24.45% +221 95,514 24.51% +147 95,661 24.57% +236 95,897 24.65% +570 96,467 24.84% +854 97,321 25.21% +2,591 99,912 26.00% +13,953 113,865 30.88% +35,248 149,113 44.98%
Aaron Peskin 89,215 22.86% 0 89,215 22.86% 0 89,215 22.86% +25 89,240 22.87% +133 89,373 22.92% +125 89,498 22.96% +150 89,648 23.01% +216 89,864 23.08% +234 90,098 23.16% +712 90,810 23.38% +1,209 92,019 23.84% +4,054 96,073 25.00% +8,206 104,279 28.28% -104,279
Mark Farrell 72,115 18.48% 0 72,115 18.48% 0 72,115 18.48% +41 72,156 18.50% +103 72,259 18.53% +309 72,568 18.62% +148 72,716 18.66% +189 72,905 18.72% +533 73,438 18.88% +608 74,046 19.06% +2,292 76,338 19.77% +2,540 78,878 20.53% -78,878
Ahsha Safaí 11,425 2.93% 0 11,425 2.93% 0 11,425 2.93% +29 11,454 2.94% +36 11,490 2.95% +64 11,554 2.96% +390 11,944 3.07% +98 12,042 3.09% +150 12,192 3.13% +364 12,556 3.23% +1,062 13,618 3.53% -13,618
Ellen Lee Zhou 8,665 2.22% 0 8,665 2.22% 0 8,665 2.22% +49 8,714 2.23% +56 8,770 2.25% +103 8,873 2.28% +188 9,061 2.33% +389 9,450 2.43% +299 9,749 2.51% +345 10,094 2.60% -10,094
Dylan Hirsch-Shell 2,897 0.74% 0 2,897 0.74% +1 2,898 0.74% +27 2,925 0.75% +41 2,966 0.76% +86 3,052 0.78% +133 3,185 0.82% +440 3,625 0.93% +314 3,939 1.01% -3,939
Keith Freedman 2,079 0.53% 0 2,079 0.53% 0 2,079 0.53% +42 2,121 0.54% +59 2,180 0.56% +149 2,329 0.60% +77 2,406 0.62% +133 2,539 0.65% -2,539
Nelson Mei 1,791 0.46% 0 1,791 0.46% 0 1,791 0.46% +18 1,809 0.46% +65 1,874 0.48% +74 1,948 0.50% +95 2,043 0.52% -2,043
Shahram Shariati 1,613 0.41% 0 1,613 0.41% 0 1,613 0.41% +11 1,624 0.42% +43 1,667 0.43% +64 1,731 0.44% -1,731
Henry Flynn 1,319 0.34% 0 1,319 0.34% 0 1,319 0.34% +34 1,353 0.35% +32 1,385 0.36% -1,385
Paul Ybarra Robertson 812 0.21% 0 812 0.21% 0 812 0.21% +26 838 0.21% -838
Jon Soderstrom 412 0.11% 0 412 0.11% 0 412 0.11% -412
Marc Roth 3 0.00% 0 3 0.00% -3
Michael Lin 1 0.00% -1
Continuing Votes Total 390,184 390,184 390,183 390,123 389,979 389,797 389,631 389,348 389,014 388,428 386,042 384,225 368,739 331,477
Exhausted Ballots 0 0 0 +1 1 +52 53 +133 186 +170 356 +152 508 +260 768 +314 1,082 +546 1,628 +2,328 3,956 +1,734 5,690 +15,235 20,925 +36,934 57,859
Over Votes 1,381 0 1,381 0 1,381 +8 1,389 +11 1,400 +12 1,412 +14 1,426 +23 1,449 +40 1,509 +58 1,567 +83 1,650 +251 1,901 +328 2,229
Under Votes 18,540 0 18,540 0 18,540 0 18,540 0 18,540 0 18,540 0 18,540 0 18,540 0 18,540 0 18,540 0 18,540 0 18,540 0 18,540 0 18,540
Non-Transferable Total 19,921 19,921 19,922 19,982 20,126 20,308 20,474 20,757 21,091 21,677 24,063 25,880 41,366 78,628

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ a b c d With undecideds

Partisan Clients

  1. ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by Lurie's campaign
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Peskin's campaign
  3. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the San Francisco Chronicle
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by TogetherSF Action, which endorsed Farrell
  5. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by GrowSF
  6. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the San Francisco Deputy Sheriff’s Association
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by Farrell's campaign
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by Neighbors for San Francisco, which endorsed Farrell and Lurie

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Knight, Heather (December 12, 2023). "The Challengers Weighing a Run at San Francisco's Mayor". The New York Times. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
  2. ^ "San Francisco mayoral race: Breed concedes, Lurie's lead widens". NBC Bay Area. Associated Press. November 7, 2024. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
  3. ^ "San Franciscans say they feel less safe than in over 20 years, city survey shows". San Francisco Chronicle. April 13, 2023. Archived from the original on August 17, 2023.
  4. ^ Morris, J. D. (July 31, 2023). "Is S.F. Mayor Breed at risk of losing reelection? Here's what experts say". San Francisco Chronicle. Archived from the original on September 19, 2023.
  5. ^ "Supervisor Ahsha Safaí Wins in a Head-to-Head Election Contest with Mayor Breed". Probolsky Research. June 23, 2023. Archived from the original on September 29, 2023.
  6. ^ Morris, J. D.; Moench, Mallory (March 23, 2023). "S.F. Mayor Breed may have a challenger in next year's election. Here's who is looking to run". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved March 24, 2023.
  7. ^ Knight, Heather (February 13, 2024). "Will Voters in San Francisco Go for a Different Kind of Mayor?". The New York Times. Retrieved February 13, 2024.
  8. ^ a b c d Dickey, Megan Rose (June 17, 2024). "What to know about San Francisco's mayoral race". Axios. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
  9. ^ Shanks, Adam (September 26, 2023). "Officially official: Lurie joins SF mayoral field". San Francisco Examiner. Retrieved December 10, 2023.
  10. ^ "Sup. Aaron Peskin says he's running for San Francisco mayor". KTVU. April 3, 2024. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
  11. ^ "Candidates - November 5, 2024, Consolidated General Election". SF.gov. City and County of San Francisco. Retrieved May 22, 2024.
  12. ^ Gaus, Annie; Ege, Mike (May 8, 2023). "Mayor London Breed Gets a Reelection Challenger". The San Francisco Standard. Retrieved May 9, 2023.
  13. ^ Ege, Mike (January 15, 2024). "Get To Know the Longshots Running for San Francisco Mayor". The San Francisco Standard.
  14. ^ Bajko, Matthew (June 19, 2024). "Gay underdogs qualify for San Francisco mayoral race". Bay Area Reporter. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
  15. ^ Han, Li (April 11, 2024). "This far-right, MAGA candidate could decide the race for San Francisco mayor". The San Francisco Standard.
  16. ^ Morris, J.D. (May 17, 2024). "More S.F. mayor's race drama as two forums canceled". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  17. ^ a b c d e Koehn, Josh (May 18, 2024). "Mayor Breed kicks off reelection campaign, drop-kicks foes". The San Francisco Standard. Retrieved July 18, 2024.
  18. ^ a b Bajko, Matthew S. (March 25, 2024). "Political Notes: With DCCC race results, Breed could have edge for SF Dems endorsement". Bay Area Reporter. Retrieved September 17, 2024.
  19. ^ Korte, Lara; Gardiner, Dustin (October 24, 2023). "London Breed's power play". Politico. Retrieved October 27, 2023.
  20. ^ Morris, J.D. (October 22, 2024). "How London Breed's unpopularity and ranked-choice voting could doom her reelection bid". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  21. ^ a b c d e f g Rivano Barros, Joe (October 11, 2024). "D10 Supervisor Shamann Walton endorses Breed for mayor—but also Peskin". Mission Local. Retrieved October 11, 2024.
  22. ^ a b Shanks, Adam (July 18, 2024). "Stefani endorses Farrell, Breed in mayor's race". San Francisco Examiner. Retrieved July 18, 2024.
  23. ^ Har, Janie (October 4, 2024). "San Francisco's first Black female mayor is in a pricey battle for a second term". Associated Press. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  24. ^ Rivano Barros, Jon (September 27, 2024). "See how they run: Dolores Huerta endorses Mayor London Breed". Mission Local. Retrieved September 27, 2024.
  25. ^ Toledo, Aldo (July 24, 2024). "S.F. Democratic Party gives sole election endorsement to Mayor Breed. Here's why that's a big deal". San Francisco Chronicle.
  26. ^ "November 5, 2024 General Election Endorsements". alicebtoklas.org/. Retrieved August 21, 2024.
  27. ^ "Black Women Organized For Political Action SF & BLKxSF Phone Bank for Mayor London Breed". mobilize.us. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  28. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an "2024 San Francisco Mayoral Race". Retrieved October 4, 2024.
  29. ^ "Nov 5, 2024, General Election Endorsements 三藩市十一月大選背書名單". Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  30. ^ Chou, Lauren (July 24, 2023). "EMILYs List Endorses London Breed for Reelection as Mayor of San Francisco, California". EMILYs List. Retrieved July 25, 2023.
  31. ^ "Your 2024 Gun Sense Candidates". gunsensevoter.org. Retrieved July 25, 2024.
  32. ^ "Moms' Seal of Approval on Child Care". Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  33. ^ "Elect Champions for Reproductive Rights". Retrieved September 8, 2024.
  34. ^ "Endorsing London Breed for Mayor". Retrieved September 30, 2024.
  35. ^ "Endorsements - San Francisco League of Conservation Voters". Retrieved September 8, 2024.
  36. ^ Eskenazi, Joe (August 22, 2024). "San Francisco police union endorses Mayor Breed, but cops cry foul". Mission Local. Retrieved August 29, 2024.
  37. ^ "ENDORSEMENTS FOR THE NOVEMBER 2024 GENERAL ELECTION". Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  38. ^ Johnson, Sydney (July 23, 2024). "SF Mayor London Breed Wins Key 'YIMBY' Endorsement After String of Misses". KQED-TV. Retrieved August 28, 2024.
  39. ^ "November 2024 Endorsements". Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  40. ^ "Laborers Union Local 261 Announces Final Ranked Endorsement in San Francisco Mayor's Race". Facebook. Retrieved September 17, 2024.
  41. ^ "Ballot Recommendations Voters Guide". Retrieved September 17, 2024.
  42. ^ "Editorial: Reelect SF Mayor London Breed". Bay Area Reporter. October 2, 2024. Retrieved October 3, 2024.
  43. ^ a b Johnson, Sydney (August 15, 2024). "In SF Mayor's Race, Farrell Flips 2 Key Endorsements That Previously Went to Breed". KQED-TV. Retrieved September 15, 2024.
  44. ^ "Mark Farrell for Mayor of San Francisco". July 22, 2024. Retrieved October 6, 2024.
  45. ^ "San Francisco Endorsements 2024" (PDF). Retrieved October 20, 2024.
  46. ^ a b "Who Are Safai and Farrell and Why Should We Vote for Them?". September 25, 2024. Retrieved October 6, 2024.
  47. ^ a b "San Francisco Deputy Sheriffs' Association Announces Mayoral Endorsements and Denounces Current Mayor". August 23, 2024. Retrieved October 6, 2024.
  48. ^ Justice, Tiffany (March 28, 2024). "SF mayor candidate Daniel Lurie gets big endorsement". KRON-TV. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  49. ^ "Endorsement: Breed is the safe choice for mayor. But if you think S.F. needs change, only one candidate fits". San Francisco Chronicle. October 16, 2024. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  50. ^ a b c "2024 California Voter Guide: San Francisco Races". Retrieved October 21, 2024.
  51. ^ Smith, H.R. (October 24, 2024). "Dolores Huerta says she regrets endorsing London Breed, backs Peskin as No. 1". Mission Local. Retrieved November 3, 2024.
  52. ^ Menconi, Keith (October 2024). "How SF mayoral candidates plan to meet 'aggressive' state housing goals". San Francisco Examiner. Retrieved October 21, 2024.
  53. ^ "NUHW endorses Aaron Peskin for San Francisco mayor". Retrieved June 19, 2024.
  54. ^ Eskenazi, Joe (July 16, 2024). "SEIU 1021, SF's largest union, sole-endorses Aaron Peskin". Mission Local. Retrieved July 18, 2024.
  55. ^ David Binder Research
  56. ^ Public Policy Polling
  57. ^ Sextant Strategies & Research
  58. ^ Lieberman Data & Insights, Inc.
  59. ^ David Binder Research
  60. ^ FM3 Research (D)
  61. ^ David Binder Research
  62. ^ KRON4/Emerson College
  63. ^ FM3 Research (D)
  64. ^ Probolsky Research
  65. ^ Sextant Strategies & Research
  66. ^ FM3 Research (D)
  67. ^ Impact Research (D)
  68. ^ FM3 Research (D)
  69. ^ FM3 Research (D)
  70. ^ Probolsky Research
  71. ^ Sextant Strategies & Research
  72. ^ David Binder Research (D)
  73. ^ "November 5, 2024 Election Results". sfelections.org. Retrieved December 9, 2024.
  74. ^ "RCV Results for MAYOR". sfelections.org. Retrieved January 8, 2025.
[edit]

Official campaign websites