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This article needs to be updated. The reason given is: The election results need to be updated in the infobox and the results table at the bottom needs to be filled in.(November 2024) |
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First round results by precinct | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2024 San Francisco mayoral election took place on November 5, 2024, to elect the mayor of San Francisco, California. It was originally scheduled for November 7, 2023, but following the passage of Proposition H in 2022, mayoral elections were rescheduled to coincide with presidential elections. The election used ranked-choice voting.
Incumbent mayor London Breed ran for re-election to a second term in office: she was considered vulnerable, as polls had consistently shown her with low approval ratings. Breed had also faced criticism for her handling of important issues in the city, including homelessness, crime, and drug addiction.[1]
On November 7, Breed conceded the race to Daniel Lurie.[2]
A survey was released by the San Francisco Controller in 2023 which reported the lowest safety rating since 1996, and the lowest government rating since 2002.[3] Polling in June reported that 64% of people did not believe London Breed should be reelected and she had a 66% disapproval rating.[4][5]
Date | Host | Moderator(s) | Link | Participants | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee W Withdrawn |
||||||||
London Breed | Mark Farrell | Daniel Lurie | Aaron Peskin | Ahsha Safaí | ||||
May 20, 2024 (cancelled)[16] |
TogetherSF Action | Karen Breslau Kim-Mai Cutler |
W | A | W | W | A | |
June 12, 2024 | City Arts & Lectures | Heather Knight Manny Yekutiel |
Video | P | P | P | P | P |
June 17, 2024 | San Francisco Democratic Party |
Terisa Estacio | P | P | P | P | P | |
July 8, 2024 | Stop Crime Action Stop Crime SF ConnectedSF |
Frank Noto Amber Lee |
P | P | P | A | P | |
Sept. 5, 2024 | District 8 Neighborhood Groups |
Joe Fitzgerald Rodriguez | Video | A | P | P | P | P |
Sept. 11, 2024 | KPIX San Francisco Examiner KCBS |
Ryan Yamamoto Doug Sovereign Adam Shanks |
A | P | P | P | P | |
Sept. 19, 2024 | KQED San Francisco Chronicle |
Joe Garofoli Marisa Lagos Scott Shafer |
Video | P | P | P | P | P |
Sept. 26, 2024 | Asian Pacific Islander Council | Richard Lui Gia Vang |
P | P | P | P | P | |
Sept. 28, 2024 | San Francisco Latino Parity and Equity Coalition |
Chris Iglesias Ani Rivera |
P | A | P | P | P | |
Sept. 30, 2024 | League of Women Voters of San Francisco |
Alison Goh Darcy Brown |
Video | A | P | P | P | P |
State legislators
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Individuals
Political parties
Organizations
Labor unions
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Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
RCV round |
London Breed |
Mark Farrell |
Daniel Lurie |
Aaron Peskin |
Ahsha Safaí |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
David Binder Research[55][A] | October 26–27, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | – | 23% | 17% | 26% | 18% | 4% | 5% | 7% |
Public Policy Polling[56][B] | October 18–19, 2024 | 621 (LV) | ± 4% | – | 18% | 15% | 25% | 25% | – | 6% | 11% |
Sextant Strategies & Research[57][C] | October 15–16, 2024 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 1 | 27% | 16% | 27% | 21% | 6% | 3% | – |
2 | 27% | 17% | 27% | 22% | 7% | – | – | ||||
3 | 30% | 18% | 28% | 24% | – | – | – | ||||
4 | 33% | – | 41% | 26% | – | – | – | ||||
5 | 44% | – | 56% | – | – | – | – | ||||
Lieberman Data & Insights, Inc.[58][D] | October 9–19, 2024 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 1 | 25% | 21% | 21% | 20% | 3% | 4% | 6% |
David Binder Research[59][A] | September 28 – October 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 1 | 23% | 19% | 22% | 16% | 4% | 6% | 10% |
2 | 27% | 23% | 27% | 18% | 5% | – | – | ||||
3 | 29% | 24% | 28% | 20% | – | – | – | ||||
4 | 37% | 27% | 36% | – | – | – | – | ||||
5 | 47% | – | 53% | – | – | – | – | ||||
FM3 Research (D)[60][E] | September 21–26, 2024 | 415 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 1 | 38% | 19% | 21% | 18% | 4% | – | 11% |
2 | 39% | 19% | 21% | 21% | – | – | – | ||||
3 | 43% | – | 34% | 23% | – | – | – | ||||
4 | 51% | – | 49% | – | – | – | – | ||||
David Binder Research[61][A] | September 3–8, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 26% | 28% | 26% | 14% | 6% | – | – |
2 | 27% | 29% | 28% | 16% | – | – | – | ||||
3 | 33% | 33% | 34% | – | – | – | – | ||||
4 | 43% | – | 57% | – | – | – | – | ||||
KRON4/Emerson College[62] | September 5–7, 2024 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 1 | 20.3% | 20.6% | 17.5% | 8.5% | 1.6% | – | 26.5% |
FM3 Research (D)[63][A] | August 21–28, 2024 | 708 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 36% | 23% | 22% | 14% | 5% | – | – |
2 | 38% | 23% | 23% | 15% | – | – | – | ||||
3 | 44% | 27% | 28% | – | – | – | – | ||||
4 | 52% | – | 48% | – | – | – | – | ||||
Probolsky Research[64][F] | July 30–August 7, 2024 | 300 (RV) | ± 5.8% | 1 | 28% | 24% | 19% | 22% | 3% | – | – |
2 | 28% | 24% | 19% | 22% | 3% | – | – | ||||
3 | 29% | 24% | 20% | 22% | 3% | – | – | ||||
4 | 30% | 25% | 20% | 22% | 3% | – | – | ||||
5 | 30% | 26% | 21% | 23% | – | – | – | ||||
6 | 36% | 36% | – | 28% | – | – | – | ||||
7 | 51% | 49% | – | – | – | – | – | ||||
Sextant Strategies & Research[65][C] | July 31 – August 5, 2024 | 804 (LV) | ± 3.5% | – | 28% | 20% | 17% | 12% | 5% | – | 18% |
FM3 Research (D)[66][E] | July 9–18, 2024 | 1066 (LV) | ± 3.1% | BA[b] | 24% | 21% | 16% | 14% | 7% | – | 18% |
1 | 30% | 26% | 20% | 16% | 8% | – | – | ||||
2 | 33% | 27% | 21% | 19% | – | – | – | ||||
3 | 41% | 32% | 26% | – | – | – | – | ||||
4 | 51% | 49% | – | – | – | – | – | ||||
Impact Research (D)[67][G] | June 1–6, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | BA[b] | 21% | 23% | 20% | 17% | 4% | 5% | 11% |
5 | 43% | 57% | – | – | – | – | – | ||||
FM3 Research (D)[68][H] | May 10–16, 2024 | 866 (LV) | ± 3.5% | BA[b] | 19% | 20% | 17% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 28% |
5 | 45% | 55% | – | – | – | – | – | ||||
FM3 Research (D)[69][E] | April 29–May 5, 2024 | 412 (RV) | ± 4.9% | BA[b] | 21% | 16% | 16% | 12% | 7% | – | 28% |
1 | 29% | 23% | 23% | 16% | 9% | – | – | ||||
2 | 30% | 26% | 24% | 20% | – | – | – | ||||
3 | 39% | 31% | 30% | – | – | – | – | ||||
4 | 51% | 49% | – | – | – | – | – | ||||
Probolsky Research[70][F] | June 16–20, 2023 | 300 (RV) | ± 5.8% | – | 26% | – | – | – | 29% | – | 45% |
Sextant Strategies & Research[71][C] | February 14–18, 2024 | 812 (LV) | ± 3.4% | – | 18% | 20% | 16% | – | 8% | – | 38% |
David Binder Research (D)[72][A] | January 15–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 26% | 15% | 21% | – | 10% | – | 28% |
Elections in California |
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The following table shows a summary of the instant runoff for the election. The table shows the results for the first round and the maximum round.
Municipal elections in California are officially non-partisan, though most candidates in San Francisco receive funding and support from various political parties.
2024 San Francisco Mayoral Election[73] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Round 1 | Round 14 (Last Round) | ||
Votes | % | Votes | % | |
Daniel Lurie | 102,720 | 26.33% | 182,364 | 55.02% |
London Breed (incumbent) | 95,117 | 24.38% | 149,113 | 44.98% |
Aaron Peskin | 89,215 | 22.86% | Eliminated in Round 13 | |
Mark Farrell | 72,115 | 18.48% | Eliminated in Round 12 | |
Ahsha Safaí | 11,425 | 2.93% | Eliminated in Round 11 | |
Ellen Lee Zhou | 8,665 | 2.22% | Eliminated in Round 10 | |
Dylan Hirsch-Shell | 2,897 | 0.74% | Eliminated in Round 9 | |
Keith Freedman | 2,079 | 0.53% | Eliminated in Round 8 | |
Nelson Mei | 1,791 | 0.46% | Eliminated in Round 7 | |
Shahram Shariati | 1,613 | 0.41% | Eliminated in Round 6 | |
Henry Flynn | 1,319 | 0.34% | Eliminated in Round 5 | |
Paul Ybarra Robertson | 812 | 0.21% | Eliminated in Round 4 | |
Jon Soderstrom | 412 | 0.11% | Eliminated in Round 3 | |
Marc Roth | 3 | 0.00% | Eliminated in Round 2 | |
Michael Lin | 1 | 0.00% | Eliminated in Round 1 | |
Total Active Votes | 390,184 | 100% | 331,477 | 100% |
Source: San Francisco Department of Elections |
The following table shows how votes were counted in a series of rounds of instant runoffs. Each voter could mark which candidates were the voter's first, second, and third choice. Each voter had one vote but could rank three candidates for which they wanted their vote cast. In each round, the vote is counted for the most preferred candidate that has not yet been eliminated. Then, one or more candidates with the fewest votes are eliminated. Votes that counted for an eliminated candidate are transferred to the voter's next most preferred candidate that has not yet been eliminated.
Continuing votes are votes that counted for a candidate in that round. Exhausted ballots represent votes that could not be transferred because a less preferred candidate was not marked on the ballot. Overvotes are votes that could not be counted for a candidate because more than one candidate was marked for a choice that was ready to be counted. Undervotes are ballots that were left blank or that only marked a choice for a write-in candidate that had not qualified as a write-in candidate.
2024 San Francisco Mayoral Election Ranked-Choice-Voting Round-by-Round Results[74] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 5 | Round 6 | Round 7 | Round 8 | Round 9 | Round 10 | Round 11 | Round 12 | Round 13 | Round 14 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | |
Daniel Lurie | 102,720 | 26.33% | +1 | 102,721 | 26.33% | +1 | 102,722 | 26.33% | +29 | 102,751 | 26.34% | +62 | 102,813 | 26.36% | +138 | 102,951 | 26.41% | +163 | 103,114 | 26.46% | +148 | 103,262 | 26.52% | +439 | 103,701 | 26.66% | +754 | 104,455 | 26.89% | +2,291 | 106,746 | 27.65% | +2,616 | 109,362 | 28.46% | +41,233 | 150,595 | 40.84% | +31,769 | 182,364 | 55.02% |
London Breed (incumbent) | 95,117 | 24.38% | 0 | 95,117 | 24.38% | 0 | 95,117 | 24.38% | +21 | 95,138 | 24.39% | +64 | 95,202 | 24.41% | +91 | 95,293 | 24.45% | +221 | 95,514 | 24.51% | +147 | 95,661 | 24.57% | +236 | 95,897 | 24.65% | +570 | 96,467 | 24.84% | +854 | 97,321 | 25.21% | +2,591 | 99,912 | 26.00% | +13,953 | 113,865 | 30.88% | +35,248 | 149,113 | 44.98% |
Aaron Peskin | 89,215 | 22.86% | 0 | 89,215 | 22.86% | 0 | 89,215 | 22.86% | +25 | 89,240 | 22.87% | +133 | 89,373 | 22.92% | +125 | 89,498 | 22.96% | +150 | 89,648 | 23.01% | +216 | 89,864 | 23.08% | +234 | 90,098 | 23.16% | +712 | 90,810 | 23.38% | +1,209 | 92,019 | 23.84% | +4,054 | 96,073 | 25.00% | +8,206 | 104,279 | 28.28% | -104,279 | ||
Mark Farrell | 72,115 | 18.48% | 0 | 72,115 | 18.48% | 0 | 72,115 | 18.48% | +41 | 72,156 | 18.50% | +103 | 72,259 | 18.53% | +309 | 72,568 | 18.62% | +148 | 72,716 | 18.66% | +189 | 72,905 | 18.72% | +533 | 73,438 | 18.88% | +608 | 74,046 | 19.06% | +2,292 | 76,338 | 19.77% | +2,540 | 78,878 | 20.53% | -78,878 | |||||
Ahsha Safaí | 11,425 | 2.93% | 0 | 11,425 | 2.93% | 0 | 11,425 | 2.93% | +29 | 11,454 | 2.94% | +36 | 11,490 | 2.95% | +64 | 11,554 | 2.96% | +390 | 11,944 | 3.07% | +98 | 12,042 | 3.09% | +150 | 12,192 | 3.13% | +364 | 12,556 | 3.23% | +1,062 | 13,618 | 3.53% | -13,618 | ||||||||
Ellen Lee Zhou | 8,665 | 2.22% | 0 | 8,665 | 2.22% | 0 | 8,665 | 2.22% | +49 | 8,714 | 2.23% | +56 | 8,770 | 2.25% | +103 | 8,873 | 2.28% | +188 | 9,061 | 2.33% | +389 | 9,450 | 2.43% | +299 | 9,749 | 2.51% | +345 | 10,094 | 2.60% | -10,094 | |||||||||||
Dylan Hirsch-Shell | 2,897 | 0.74% | 0 | 2,897 | 0.74% | +1 | 2,898 | 0.74% | +27 | 2,925 | 0.75% | +41 | 2,966 | 0.76% | +86 | 3,052 | 0.78% | +133 | 3,185 | 0.82% | +440 | 3,625 | 0.93% | +314 | 3,939 | 1.01% | -3,939 | ||||||||||||||
Keith Freedman | 2,079 | 0.53% | 0 | 2,079 | 0.53% | 0 | 2,079 | 0.53% | +42 | 2,121 | 0.54% | +59 | 2,180 | 0.56% | +149 | 2,329 | 0.60% | +77 | 2,406 | 0.62% | +133 | 2,539 | 0.65% | -2,539 | |||||||||||||||||
Nelson Mei | 1,791 | 0.46% | 0 | 1,791 | 0.46% | 0 | 1,791 | 0.46% | +18 | 1,809 | 0.46% | +65 | 1,874 | 0.48% | +74 | 1,948 | 0.50% | +95 | 2,043 | 0.52% | -2,043 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Shahram Shariati | 1,613 | 0.41% | 0 | 1,613 | 0.41% | 0 | 1,613 | 0.41% | +11 | 1,624 | 0.42% | +43 | 1,667 | 0.43% | +64 | 1,731 | 0.44% | -1,731 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Henry Flynn | 1,319 | 0.34% | 0 | 1,319 | 0.34% | 0 | 1,319 | 0.34% | +34 | 1,353 | 0.35% | +32 | 1,385 | 0.36% | -1,385 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Paul Ybarra Robertson | 812 | 0.21% | 0 | 812 | 0.21% | 0 | 812 | 0.21% | +26 | 838 | 0.21% | -838 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Jon Soderstrom | 412 | 0.11% | 0 | 412 | 0.11% | 0 | 412 | 0.11% | -412 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Marc Roth | 3 | 0.00% | 0 | 3 | 0.00% | -3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Michael Lin | 1 | 0.00% | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Continuing Votes Total | 390,184 | 390,184 | 390,183 | 390,123 | 389,979 | 389,797 | 389,631 | 389,348 | 389,014 | 388,428 | 386,042 | 384,225 | 368,739 | 331,477 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Exhausted Ballots | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | +52 | 53 | +133 | 186 | +170 | 356 | +152 | 508 | +260 | 768 | +314 | 1,082 | +546 | 1,628 | +2,328 | 3,956 | +1,734 | 5,690 | +15,235 | 20,925 | +36,934 | 57,859 | ||||||||||||||
Over Votes | 1,381 | 0 | 1,381 | 0 | 1,381 | +8 | 1,389 | +11 | 1,400 | +12 | 1,412 | +14 | 1,426 | +23 | 1,449 | +40 | 1,509 | +58 | 1,567 | +83 | 1,650 | +251 | 1,901 | +328 | 2,229 | ||||||||||||||||
Under Votes | 18,540 | 0 | 18,540 | 0 | 18,540 | 0 | 18,540 | 0 | 18,540 | 0 | 18,540 | 0 | 18,540 | 0 | 18,540 | 0 | 18,540 | 0 | 18,540 | 0 | 18,540 | 0 | 18,540 | 0 | 18,540 | 0 | 18,540 | ||||||||||||||
Non-Transferable Total | 19,921 | 19,921 | 19,922 | 19,982 | 20,126 | 20,308 | 20,474 | 20,757 | 21,091 | 21,677 | 24,063 | 25,880 | 41,366 | 78,628 |
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