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Cortez Masto: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Laxalt: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Nevada |
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Nevada portal |
The 2022 United States Senate election in Nevada was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Nevada. Incumbent Democratic senator Catherine Cortez Masto won re-election to a second term, narrowly defeating Republican challenger Adam Laxalt.[1] Nevada's election results were slowed due to state law that allowed voters to submit mail-in ballots until November 12, and allowed voters to fix clerical problems in their mail-in ballots until November 14, 2022.[2] No Republican has won this specific U.S. Senate seat since Adam Laxalt's grandfather Paul Laxalt won a second full term in 1980.
According to exit polls, Cortez Masto won 62% of Latinos, 64% of young voters, and 52% of women.[3]
Cortez Masto made protecting abortion rights a central issue of her campaign.[4] Many experts and forecasters saw Nevada as Republicans' best chance to pickup a seat in the Senate. Despite Laxalt leading in most polls, Cortez Masto narrowly won re-election by a little less than 8,000 votes.
Cortez Masto flipped Washoe County, improving her 2016 voteshare by 1.7%, although Laxalt improved on Joe Heck's margin in rural counties, and performed slightly better in Clark County. The incumbent Democrat's improvements in Washoe compared to 2016 proved to be decisive, as her victory margin there was slightly larger than in Nevada as a whole. With a narrow margin of 0.77%, this was the closest Senate race of the 2022 election cycle and the closest Senate election in Nevada since 1998.
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Catherine Cortez Masto (incumbent) | 159,694 | 90.87% | |
Democratic | Corey Reid | 4,491 | 2.56% | |
None of These Candidates | 4,216 | 2.40% | ||
Democratic | Allen Rheinhart | 3,852 | 2.19% | |
Democratic | Stephanie Kasheta | 3,487 | 1.98% | |
Total votes | 175,740 | 100.0% |
2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Nevada debates[i] | |||||||||||
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No. | Date | Organizer | Location | Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
Source | ||||||
Sam Brown | Bill Conrad | Bill Hockstedler | Adam Laxalt | Sharellen Mendenhall | |||||||
1 | April 7, 2022 | Redmove Nevada | Atlantis Casino Resort Spa, Reno | A | P | P | A | P | [39][40] | ||
2 | May 9, 2022 | Nevada Newsmakers | Nevada Newsmakers Studio, Reno | P | N | N | P | N | [41][42] |
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Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Sam Brown |
Bill Hockstedler |
Adam Laxalt |
Sharelle Mendenhall |
Other [a] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics[63] | April 25 – June 7, 2022 | June 10, 2022 | 30.3% | 1.0% | 51.3% | 3.0% | 24.4% | Laxalt +21.0 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Sam Brown |
Bill Hockstedler |
Adam Laxalt |
Sharelle Mendenhall |
None of These Candidates |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights[64] | June 6–7, 2022 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 34% | 1% | 48% | 3% | 2% | 3%[c] | 9% |
University of Nevada Reno[65] | May 17–27, 2022 | 368 (LV) | ± 5.9% | 31% | 5% | 57% | 7% | – | – | – |
OH Predictive Insights[66] | May 10–12, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 30% | 0% | 45% | 3% | 8% | 2%[d] | 11% |
Emerson College[67] | April 30 – May 2, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 27% | 1% | 50% | 4% | – | 3%[e] | 15% |
The Trafalgar Group (R)[68] | April 25–28, 2022 | 1,071 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 26% | 1% | 50% | 3% | – | 5% | 15% |
WPA Intelligence (R)[69][A] | April 24–26, 2022 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 20% | 1% | 57% | 1% | 9% | – | 12% |
WPA Intelligence (R)[70][B] | March 13–15, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 19% | 1% | 57% | 1% | – | 3% | 15% |
OH Predictive Insights[71] | January 19–26, 2022 | 230 (RV) | ± 6.5% | 14% | – | 37% | – | – | – | 49% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Dean Heller |
Adam Laxalt |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WPA Intelligence (R)[72][B] | December 9–11, 2020 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 25% | 44% | 6% | 25% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Adam Laxalt | 127,757 | 55.91% | |
Republican | Sam Brown | 78,206 | 34.23% | |
Republican | Sharelle Mendenhall | 6,946 | 3.04% | |
None of These Candidates | 6,277 | 2.75% | ||
Republican | William "Bill" Conrad | 3,440 | 1.51% | |
Republican | William "Bill" Hockstedler | 2,836 | 1.24% | |
Republican | Paul Rodriguez | 1,844 | 0.81% | |
Republican | Tyler Perkins | 850 | 0.37% | |
Republican | Carlo Poliak | 332 | 0.15% | |
Total votes | 228,488 | 100.0% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[75] | Tossup | March 4, 2022 |
Inside Elections[76] | Tossup | February 24, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[77] | Lean D | November 7, 2022 |
Politico[78] | Tossup | April 1, 2022 |
RCP[79] | Tossup | November 1, 2022 |
Fox News[80] | Tossup | May 12, 2022 |
DDHQ[81] | Tossup | August 22, 2022 |
538[82] | Tossup | September 22, 2022 |
The Economist[83] | Lean R (flip) | November 6, 2022 |
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Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) |
Adam Laxalt (R) |
Undecided [f] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics[132] | October 24 – November 7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 45.4% | 48.8% | 5.8% | Laxalt +3.4 |
FiveThirtyEight[133] | October 5 – November 8, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 45.9% | 47.3% | 6.8% | Laxalt +1.4 |
270towin[134] | October 27 – November 7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 45.0% | 48.8% | 6.2% | Laxalt +3.8 |
Average | 45.4% | 48.3% | 6.3% | Laxalt +2.9 |
Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) |
Adam Laxalt (R) |
None of These Candidates |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R)[135] | November 5–7, 2022 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 50% | – | 2%[g] | 2% |
Research Co.[136] | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 47% | – | 2%[h] | 5% |
Data for Progress (D)[137] | November 2–6, 2022 | 1,100 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 1% | 3%[i] | – |
InsiderAdvantage (R)[138][C] | November 4, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 44% | 50% | – | 2%[j] | 5% |
KAConsulting (R)[139][D] | November 2–3, 2022 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 44% | – | 1% | 9% |
Cygnal (R)[140][C] | November 1–2, 2022 | 600 (LV) | – | 43% | 46% | – | 5%[k] | 6% |
Emerson College[141] | October 26–29, 2022 | 2,000 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 45% | 50% | 1% | 2%[l] | 3% |
46% | 51% | 1% | 3%[m] | – | ||||
Suffolk University[142] | October 24–28, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 44% | 3% | 4%[n] | 5% |
OH Predictive Insights[143] | October 24–27, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 41% | 1% | 5%[o] | 10% |
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[144][E] | October 24–27, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 48% | <1% | 4%[p] | 5% |
Echelon Insights[145] | October 24–26, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 45% | – | 2%[q] | 8% |
46% | 48% | – | – | 6% | ||||
The Trafalgar Group (R)[146] | October 21–24, 2022 | 1,100 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 50% | – | 3%[r] | 2% |
Siena Research/NYT[147] | October 19–24, 2022 | 885 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 47% | – | 2%[s] | 4% |
Phillips Academy[148] | October 22–23, 2022 | 1,052 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | – | – | 4% |
InsiderAdvantage (R)[149][C] | October 20, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 48% | – | 2%[t] | 4% |
CBS News/YouGov[150] | October 14–19, 2022 | 1,057 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 49% | – | 3%[u] | – |
Data for Progress (D)[151] | October 13–19, 2022 | 819 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | – | 2%[v] | 1% |
BSP Research/Shaw & Co.[152][F] | October 12–19, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 42% | – | 5%[w] | 10% |
University of Nevada, Reno[153] | October 5–19, 2022 | 586 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 39% | – | 3%[x] | 5% |
WPA Intelligence (R)[154][B] | October 16–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 45% | – | 6%[y] | – |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[155] | October 13–17, 2022 | 707 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 48% | – | 4%[z] | 5% |
Suffolk University[156] | October 4–7, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 44% | 3% | 3%[aa] | 5% |
WPA Intelligence (R)[154][B] | October 2–4, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 42% | – | 4%[ab] | 10% |
CNN/SSRS[157] | September 26 – October 2, 2022 | 926 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 47% | 44% | 2% | 3%[ac] | 1% |
828 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 46% | 48% | 2% | 3%[ad] | – | ||
OH Predictive Insights[158] | September 20–29, 2022 | 741 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 45% | 3% | 2%[ae] | 7% |
InsiderAdvantage (R)[159][C] | September 20, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 43% | 46% | – | 2%[af] | 9% |
Big Data Poll (R)[160] | September 18–20, 2022 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 46% | – | – | – |
The Trafalgar Group (R)[161] | September 17–20, 2022 | 1,086 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 47% | – | 5%[ag] | 5% |
Data for Progress (D)[162] | September 14–19, 2022 | 874 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 47% | – | 6%[ah] | 2% |
Emerson College[163] | September 8–10, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | – | 4% | 11% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[164] | August 16–24, 2022 | 1,332 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 40% | 3% | 4%[ai] | 9% |
48% | 47% | – | – | 6% | ||||
The Trafalgar Group (R)[165] | August 15–18, 2022 | 1,082 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 47% | – | 4%[aj] | 6% |
Suffolk University[166] | August 14–17, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 38% | 3% | 3%[ak] | 12% |
Beacon Research (D)[167][G] | July 5–20, 2022 | 479 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 39% | – | 1% | 7% |
301 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 51% | 45% | – | 1% | 2% | ||
Emerson College[168] | July 7–10, 2022 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 44% | 41% | – | 6% | 9% |
Change Research (D)[169][H] | June 24–27, 2022 | 701 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 43% | – | – | 12% |
University of Nevada, Reno[170] | May 17–27, 2022 | 1,098 (A) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 27% | – | 11% | 14% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[171][I] | April 18–20, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | – | – | 7% |
OH Predictive Insights[172] | April 1–9, 2022 | 748 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 35% | – | – | 22% |
Suffolk University[173] | April 2–6, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 43% | 3% | – | 14% |
Blueprint Polling (D)[174] | March 21–24, 2022 | 671 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 47% | – | – | 13% |
Change Research (D)[169][H] | March 2022 | – (LV) | – | 44% | 46% | – | – | 10% |
OH Predictive Insights[71] | January 19–26, 2022 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 35% | – | – | 21% |
The Trafalgar Group (R)[175] | November 24–29, 2021 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 44% | – | – | 15% |
NRSC (R)[176][J] | November 14–17, 2021 | 571 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 46% | – | – | 12% |
The Mellman Group (D)[177] | September 15–22, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 41% | 3% | – | 10% |
WPA Intelligence (R)[178][A] | September 11–15, 2021 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 37% | 39% | 12% | – | 12% |
VCreek/AMG (R)[179][K] | August 9–14, 2021 | 567 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 32% | 42% | – | – | 26% |
Catherine Cortez Masto vs. Sam Brown
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) |
Sam Brown (R) |
None of These Candidates |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of Nevada, Reno[170] | May 17–27, 2022 | 1,098 (A) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 24% | – | 13% | 16% |
OH Predictive Insights[180] | April 1–9, 2022 | 748 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 34% | – | – | 24% |
Suffolk University[173] | April 2–6, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 39% | 40% | 5% | – | 17% |
Cortez Masto won urban Clark County and Washoe County, home to Las Vegas and Reno respectively. Combined, these two counties contain more than 80% of the state's total population. While her margin in Clark County fell from 11% in 2016 to 8% in this election, she flipped Washoe County, which she lost by less than 1% in 2016, with a 4% margin of victory. Laxalt won by landslide margins in Nevada's rural counties, but they are lightly populated and cast less than 16% of the total vote. In the end, Cortez Masto's victories in the state's two largest counties gave her too large a lead for Laxalt to overcome in rural Nevada. As of 2023, no Republican has won any U.S. Senate race in Nevada since 2012.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Catherine Cortez Masto (incumbent) | 498,316 | 48.81% | +1.71% | |
Republican | Adam Laxalt | 490,388 | 48.04% | +3.37% | |
None of These Candidates | 12,441 | 1.22% | -2.59% | ||
Independent | Barry Lindemann | 8,075 | 0.79% | N/A | |
Libertarian | Neil Scott | 6,422 | 0.63% | N/A | |
Independent American | Barry Rubinson | 5,208 | 0.51% | −1.04% | |
Total votes | 1,020,850 | 100.0% | |||
Democratic hold |
By county
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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic |
Cortez Masto won 3 of 4 congressional districts.[182]
District | Cortez Masto | Laxalt | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 52% | 44.8% | Dina Titus |
2nd | 42.7% | 53.9% | Mark Amodei |
3rd | 51.7% | 45.7% | Susie Lee |
4th | 50.8% | 45.7% | Steven Horsford |
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