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Lee: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% McMullin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >80% Hansen: >90% Williams: >90% Tie: 30–40% 40–50% 50% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Utah |
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Utah was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Utah. Incumbent senator Mike Lee, who was first elected in 2010, won re-election to a third term, defeating Evan McMullin, an independent candidate who was endorsed by the Utah Democratic Party.
This was the first Senate election in Utah's history in which there was no Democratic nominee. Lee's performance was the worst for a Republican in a Utah U.S. Senate election since 1974, while McMullin's was the best ever for an independent in a Utah U.S. Senate race and the best for a non-Republican since 1976.
Incumbent U.S. Senator Mike Lee won over 70% of the vote at the Utah Republican Party state convention on April 23, 2022. Though considered by the party to be its nominee, a primary was still held on June 28, 2022, after two other candidates garnered enough signatures to qualify.[1]
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Evan Barlow |
Loy Brunson |
Becky Edwards |
Jeremy Friedbaum |
Laird Hamblin |
Ally Isom |
Tyrone Jensen |
Mike Lee |
Brendan Wright |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dan Jones & Associates | May 7–13, 2022 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.3% | – | – | 19% | – | – | 6% | – | 49% | – | – | 26% |
Dan Jones & Associates | March 9–21, 2022 | 484 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 6% | 1% | 19% | 2% | 1% | 4% | – | 67% | – | – | – |
OH Predictive Insights | February 7–14, 2022 | 366 (RV) | ± 5.1% | – | – | 5% | – | – | 2% | 2% | 51% | 2% | – | 37% |
Dan Jones & Associates | October 14–21, 2021 | 469 (LV) | ± 4.5% | – | – | 7% | – | – | 2% | – | 53% | – | 6% | 32% |
OH Predictive Insights | August 2–8, 2021 | 337 (RV) | ± 5.3% | – | – | 3% | – | – | 2% | – | 45% | 3% | – | 48% |
RMG Research | June 24–25, 2021 | 587 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | – | 11% | – | – | – | – | 47% | – | 8% | 33% |
State Republican Convention results, 2022 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Candidate | First ballot | Pct. | ||
Mike Lee | 2,621 | 70.74% | ||
Becky Edwards | 436 | 11.77% | ||
Ally Isom | 358 | 9.66% | ||
Jeremy Friedbaum | 132 | 3.56% | ||
Evan Barlow | 75 | 2.02% | ||
Loy Brunson | 71 | 1.92% | ||
Laird Hamblin | 12 | 0.32% | ||
Total | 3,705 | 100.00% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mike Lee (incumbent) | 258,089 | 61.94% | |
Republican | Becky Edwards | 123,617 | 29.67% | |
Republican | Ally Isom | 34,997 | 8.40% | |
Total votes | 416,703 | 100.0% |
The Utah Democratic Party state convention took place on April 23, 2022.[26] Kael Weston was the only Democrat still running; however, the party endorsed Evan McMullin's independent bid in lieu of nominating a candidate,[27] following encouragement from many prominent Democrats in the state, including former Rep. Ben McAdams and Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson, to back McMullin's campaign.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Allen Glines |
Nicholas Mitchell |
Steve Schmidt |
Austin Searle |
Kael Weston |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | February 7–14, 2022 | 110 (RV) | ± 9.3% | 2% | 5% | 16% | 2% | 14% | 60% |
The Utah Democratic Party held a state convention on April 23, 2022, to endorse candidates for state offices.[36][37][38] Supporters of independent candidate Evan McMullin, led by Salt Lake County mayor Jenny Wilson, introduced a motion for the state party to forgo nominating a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate and to instead "join Evan McMullin's independent coalition to beat Mike Lee",[37] contending that not doing so would split the anti-Lee vote in the general election.[37][38] The motion was opposed by supporters of Kael Weston, the lone Democratic candidate for the seat who thus would have received the nomination had the motion failed.[38] The delegates passed the motion by a 57–43% margin.[37][38]
Choice | Votes | % |
---|---|---|
Endorse Evan McMullin | 782 | 56.83 |
Nominate Kael Weston | 594 | 43.17 |
Total votes | 1,376 | 100.00 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[44] | Likely R | August 18, 2022 |
Inside Elections[45] | Likely R | September 9, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[46] | Likely R | June 15, 2022 |
Politico[47] | Likely R | April 1, 2022 |
RCP[48] | Likely R | November 5, 2022 |
Fox News[49] | Likely R | September 20, 2022 |
DDHQ[50] | Solid R | July 20, 2022 |
538[51] | Solid R | September 22, 2022 |
The Economist[52] | Safe R | September 7, 2022 |
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Mike Lee (R) |
Evan McMullin (I) |
Undecided [b] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FiveThirtyEight | June 15 – November 8, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 48.5% | 38.7% | 12.8% | Lee +9.8 |
270towin | October 31 – November 1, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 48.0% | 36.7% | 15.3% | Lee +11.3 |
Average | 48.2% | 37.7% | 14.1% | Lee +10.5 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mike Lee (R) |
Evan McMullin (I) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hill Research Consultants (I)[A] | October 29–30, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 47% | 46% | – | – |
Emerson College | October 25–28, 2022 | 825 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 39% | 9%[c] | 4% |
50% | 40% | 11%[d] | – | ||||
OH Predictive Insights | October 25–27, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 34% | 4%[e] | 9% |
Hill Research Consultants (I)[A] | October 8–11, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 43%[f] | 49% | 4%[g] | 4% |
42% | 46% | 4%[h] | 8% | ||||
Kurt Jetta (I)[B] | October 4–11, 2022 | 406 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 37% | – | 26% |
239 (LV) | 50% | 38% | – | 12% | |||
OH Predictive Insights | October 5–6, 2022 | 483 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 47% | 32% | 5%[i] | 16% |
Dan Jones & Associates | October 3–6, 2022 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 37% | 8%[j] | 12% |
773 (LV) | 42% | 37% | 8%[j] | 12% | |||
Dan Jones & Associates | September 3–21, 2022 | 815 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 36% | 34% | 13%[k] | 16% |
786 (LV) | 37% | 34% | 13%[k] | 16% | |||
Lighthouse Research | August 30 – September 13, 2022 | 509 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 37% | 10%[l] | 5% |
Kurt Jetta (I)[B] | September 1–8, 2022 | 474 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 37% | – | 23% |
239 (LV) | 43% | 39% | – | 18% | |||
Impact Research (I)[C] | August 29 – September 1, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 47% | – | 7% |
WPA Intelligence (R)[D] | August 4–5, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 50% | 32% | 6% | 12% |
Dan Jones & Associates | July 13–18, 2022 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 36% | 14% | 8% |
WPA Intelligence (R)[D] | July 12–14, 2022 | 529 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 35% | 10% | 5% |
Kurt Jetta (I)[B] | July 12, 2022 | 561 (A) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 32% | – | 26% |
434 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 44% | 34% | – | 22% | ||
213 (LV) | ± 6.7% | 50% | 36% | – | 15% | ||
WPA Intelligence (R)[D] | June 14–16, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 52% | 33% | – | 15% |
Dan Jones & Associates | May 24 – June 15, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 35% | 4% | 20% |
Dan Jones & Associates | May 24 – June 4, 2022 | 810 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 37% | 4% | 19% |
Kurt Jetta (I)[B] | March 5, 2022 | 683 (A) | ± 3.7% | 31% | 26% | – | 44% |
– (RV) | – | 33% | 27% | – | 40% | ||
– (LV) | – | 38% | 30% | – | 32% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Becky Edwards (R) |
Evan McMullin (I) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dan Jones & Associates | May 24 – June 15, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 31% | 29% | 7% | 34% |
Dan Jones & Associates | May 24 – June 4, 2022 | 810 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 29% | 28% | 6% | 37% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ally Isom (R) |
Evan McMullin (I) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dan Jones & Associates | May 24 – June 15, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 24% | 34% | 7% | 36% |
Dan Jones & Associates | May 24 – June 4, 2022 | 810 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 23% | 34% | 7% | 36% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mike Lee (R) |
Kael Weston (D) |
Evan McMullin (I) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Moore Information Group (R) | March 20–24, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 13% | 25% | 1% | 12% |
Dan Jones & Associates | March 9–21, 2022 | 804 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 11% | 19% | 3% | 24% |
OH Predictive Insights | February 7–14, 2022 | 739 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 34% | 12% | 24% | – | 30% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mike Lee (R) |
Steve Schmidt (D) |
Evan McMullin (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | February 7–14, 2022 | 739 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 36% | 11% | 23% | 30% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mike Lee (R) |
Steve Schmidt (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | February 7–14, 2022 | 739 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 25% | 30% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mike Lee (R) |
Kael Weston (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | February 7–14, 2022 | 739 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 25% | 30% |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Independent |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
||||||
Mike Lee | Evan McMullin | |||||
1 | Oct. 18, 2022 | Utah Debate Commission | Doug Wright | YouTube | P | P |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mike Lee (incumbent) | 571,974 | 53.15% | –15.00 | |
Independent | Evan McMullin | 459,958 | 42.74% | N/A | |
Libertarian | James Hansen | 31,784 | 2.95% | N/A | |
Independent American | Tommy Williams | 12,103 | 1.12% | –1.33 | |
Write-in | 242 | 0.02% | N/A | ||
Total votes | 1,076,061 | 100.0% | |||
Republican hold |
By county
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Lee won all 4 congressional districts.[90]
District | Lee | McMullin | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 52% | 44% | Blake Moore |
2nd | 53% | 42% | Chris Stewart |
3rd | 52% | 44% | John Curtis |
4th | 56% | 40% | Burgess Owens |
{{cite web}}
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Brendan Wright, of Lehi, announced on Saturday, March 6 that he is running in 2022 for the U.S. Senate seat currently filled by Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)